Coronavirus

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Supporting Vendor
Location
A.F.
Curious what the opinionated think about this piece....

"The opinionated" is a loaded way to ask. We all have opinions.

The article makes some excellent points. I think most of us on here agree that it is not the end of the world. The HUGE numbers of deaths are unlikely. I read some articles saying it would be as high as 1.7 million in the US alone. I don't think that is reasonable. We did something to contain the spread. What we continue to do will determine the extent.

Even Levitt who says it is not as bad as some people say, agrees with the call of social distancing.

"Levitt said he's in sync with those calling for strong measures to fight the outbreak. The social-distancing mandates are critical — particularly the ban on large gatherings — because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it, and a vaccine is still many months away. "This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies," he said."

I don't know how to balance economy and health and all that. Hopefully, we can trust in smarter people than me to figure out all that stuff.
 
Last edited:

johngottfredson

Threat Level Midnight
Location
Highland
I think it’s fun when I see commenters in the media (and here, apparently) point to Trumps wanting to get people back to work before public health experts recommend it, “simply because he’s worried about re-election.” That is, because his motivation is selfish, therefore the action is wrong. Well...yeah, if an economic collapse is ushered in under his watch, he’s definitely not getting the nod a second time. But the key phrase here is ‘economic collapse’.

For those who say economics (and liberties?) be damned, no life can be lost unnecessarily...just recognize that your candidate for president is Bernie Sanders. There is ALWAYS a trade off. ALWAYS. Why don’t we impose 50% taxes across the board so everyone in this country is guaranteed premium medical care no matter what? So yeah, it sucks to be in charge of these decisions right now, but the economic realities of the cure are starting to get real for much of the country, and that trade off that needs to be made is top of mind for everyone.

To dismiss all costs outside of public health concerns is not only nonsense, but is out of touch with the reality of American consciousness. Right or wrong, people won’t stand to lose everything they’ve built in their businesses or their life savings, or watch themselves become dependents of the state.

I certainly don’t have the answers, but both sides of the equation need to be respected.
 

Cody

Random Quote Generator
Supporting Member
Location
East Stabbington
Watching people argue about a virus on a rock crawling exploring forum is my favorite. Let's keep it up.
Honestly, that's what I like most about this community. All sorts of people, from all sorts of backgrounds have all sorts of different things to offer to a discussion like this. I've told a ton of people that I find the discussion in this thread the most interesting and useful.

There are so many people I consider good friends that I never would have crossed paths with in any other way if it weren't for a mutual interest in being offroad, mutual membership to this forum, or mutual distaste for Stephen Nelson.
 

Houndoc

Registered User
Location
Grantsville
Thoughts...


So we flatten the curve and things calm down as we roll into summer. How does it not happen again the next time a few infected people make it back to the US next fall and kick it all off again? Legit question, is the idea to buy time so a vaccine can be made and distributed to billions of people? How does this not take off again next fall assuming it doesnt like warm weather and Vitamin D? Do we isolate and shut-in every 6 months?
A lot of comments on this already, and from a medical perspective several people did pretty much hit the nail on the head.

As has been discussed previously, what makes an emerging ("novel") disease particularly dangerous is the lack of immunity in the population. Few if any of us are going to have a strong immune response to fight off a virus we have no previous exposure to. Whether we get clinically sick or just become a carrier, the virus continues to spread.

Once a certain percent of the population has been exposed and developed immunity, the rate of further spread greatly decreases. This is why even though influenza is a serious and potentially fatal disease, the degree of social isolation isn't required during most flu seasons (exceptions being 1918-19 when the strain was different enough to more qualify as an 'novel' virus.) Between vaccinations and natural exposure, most the population has significant immunity to the virus.

If this 'herd immunity' develops at a rate that the roughly 10% who will require hospitalization can be treated without overwhelming the system, then it will be a success.
 

Noahfecks

El Destructo!
In the footnotes of all the "flattening" models it says we will have to repeat the process over and over, it prevents little. Not to mention the underlying assumptions are flawed to the most extreme worst case scenario. Does anyone ever read the footnotes or assumptions anymore?

Why aren't we comparing ourselves to Germany who has done less to prevent the spread but has a mortality rate of .3%?

Stop crying Wolf little boy, you're using up your chips. Quarantine the 5% and everybody else get off your ass and get back to work, breaks over.
 

Noahfecks

El Destructo!
Lets say half get this 330MM / 2 = 165MM

Mortality rate 2% like the model = 3.3MM Deaths
Mortality rate .3% less drama scenario = 495K Deaths

Now lets look at this like a military operation, in the planning phase there is always a determination of acceptable losses. What we have to do is determine what our acceptable losses are. For comparison the flu killed 85K last year and no one blinked, obviously that was an acceptable loss. Do those 495K lives matter? hell Yes! Will they be missed? hell yes! Are their lives worth the total collapse of our economy? I don't think so, but that's the decision to be made isn't it?

I bet we could effectivly quarantine 495K people for waaayyy less than $2TT
 

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Supporting Vendor
Location
A.F.
In the footnotes of all the "flattening" models it says we will have to repeat the process over and over, it prevents little. Not to mention the underlying assumptions are flawed to the most extreme worst case scenario. Does anyone ever read the footnotes or assumptions anymore?

Why aren't we comparing ourselves to Germany who has done less to prevent the spread but has a mortality rate of .3%?

Stop crying Wolf little boy, you're using up your chips. Quarantine the 5% and everybody else get off your ass and get back to work, breaks over.
Who is the little boy you refer? I assume the little boy is the proverbial little boy. Just wondering if you are calling someone on here out specifically.
 
Last edited:

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Supporting Vendor
Location
A.F.
Looks like I was editing at the same time you were responding. :)
 

Stephen

Who Dares Wins
Supporting Member
Location
Salt Lake City
Utah's pointy hat has just issued a shelter in place order. How long until that happens here, I wonder.

 

JeeperG

Well-Known Member
Location
Riverdale
Nobody in particular, everyone that is blowing this out of proportion, the media, self serving politicians.........
I can tell you those of us in manufacturing are still working, essential or not. Outside of Autoliv being down one facility cause of two positive tests. I specifically build reefer trailers and we are just adapting to the situation.
 
Top