Coronavirus

Kevin B.

OLAF
Supporting Member
Location
Stinkwater
Somebody asked earlier why Germany, forex, had a smaller infection and fatality rate despite doing less, socially, to contain the virus. The short answer is, we screwed up:

“No matter what, a virus [like SARS-CoV-2] was going to test the resilience of even the most well-equipped health systems,” says Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious-diseases physician at the Boston University School of Medicine. More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not.

As my colleagues Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer have reported, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed and distributed a faulty test in February. Independent labs created alternatives, but were mired in bureaucracy from the FDA. In a crucial month when the American caseload shot into the tens of thousands, only hundreds of people were tested. That a biomedical powerhouse like the U.S. should so thoroughly fail to create a very simple diagnostic test was, quite literally, unimaginable. “I’m not aware of any simulations that I or others have run where we [considered] a failure of testing,” says Alexandra Phelan of Georgetown University, who works on legal and policy issues related to infectious diseases.

That entire article is a good read. It is the Atlantic and they just can't help themselves - like him or hate him you're going to need to hold your nose and ignore the jabs against Trump (I'm no fan of his and I still find them distracting - stick to the point, jerks). It's still full of good info, and every factual claim they make is cited and linked. They lay out the steps to containing this thing very clearly, including the pressing need for social distance in the near future, and anticipate a return to "normal" relatively soon, in the scheme of things. They do quote a Harvard guy as saying that even with the rapid test, multiple waves of social distancing might be necessary? Which is not what I think most others are predicting, but whatever. Nobody is an expert right now, but they're getting there.

Opinion time - as a nation, we were unready and unprepared for this thing and we are behind now and we are paying for it now and will continue to pay for it. But we're rapidly getting up to speed. Pearl Harbor is over, and the giant is waking up, and I really feel like the U.S. is going to do what we do and crush this thing. It's going to take sacrifice, and the next several months aren't going to be terribly pleasant for anybody. But if we, the little people, can hold the line and do our part to slow the spread and flatten that curve then we're going to buy the time the wizards need to get their heads on straight and do their job. We're going to come out of this thing ok as individuals and a nation. Between Federal aid and neighbors being neighbors, I fully expect to see people's needs met. Very very few people are going to lose their houses or starve over this. But to see the most people come out the far side intact, to preserve the best quality of life for everybody across the board, we've got to ignore the panicking stock traders and CEOs who are the real source of these "back to work" calls, and hold the line.

That's my argument. That's my response to anybody and everybody that is kicking against social distancing and isolation right now. A little bit of personal sacrifice now, on everyone's part, saves everyone a world of hurt down the road. And if people don't see that, if too many people continue to be selfish and do what they wanna do right now and take the easy road right now, well, those people will be the reason that this pandemic response fails. If we fall, if this thing gets really ugly, it'll be because of selfish people taking more than they need and depriving others.

And if that's calling names, then so be it. Maybe it's time for that.
 

Hickey

Rusty Girdle
Supporting Member
Yesterday I delivered to Havre, MT. It was refreshing to spend so much time in such a rural area. I think they are better equipped for a pandemic because they are so far from any city. They have to keep plenty of supplies stocked up for every day life. What nice people. So many waved at me as I neared town, and a few approach me to express thanks for my deliveries. That got me pretty emotional.

On the flip side, I couldn't stop thinking about how likely it is that I could be the one infecting their town. Last week I was in California, the week before it was Seattle/Tacoma. My hands are pretty dry from using hand sanitizer.
 

Noahfecks

El Destructo!
@Noahfecks
First, do you really think death of 500,000 or so Americans, with the associated hospitalization of those who die and the millions of others hospitalized won't impact the economy? Dead people make bad employees and customers.

And that is besides the very simply fact that you are willing to sacrifice the lives of half a million or so people just to keep your personal standard of living up is pathetic at best.
Well, to be realistic, hospitalizing lots of people will be a stimulus to the medical sector, so plus economy. Realistically the demographic that this virus is hitting the hardest are no longer a part of the workforce so they certainly are not part of the employee pool. If they were to pass it's not as if their wealth would evaporate, it would pass to their beneficiaries who would likely spend it at a faster rate that the owners, again plus economy. Not trying to be callous here, but that is the reality of what you asked, no emotion just fact.

I notice you are less passionate about the 85,000 Americans who died from the flu last year, or the 3MM elderly that die from various illnesses each year. So pathetic that you have never raised your voice about that travesty.

Germany currently has a ban on gatherings of more than 2 people. That isn’t nothing.
So are we, my point was that they were not any faster to respond yet no one is making that less dramatic comparison.

A good deal of the assumptions in the modeling have been debunked by the creator, even he is admitting the model is overly dramatic. He changed his prediction of deaths in the UK from 500K to 20K and admits 10k would have died before the end of the year of natural causes. That's a pretty big reality check.
 

Houndoc

Registered User
Location
Grantsville
That's my argument. That's my response to anybody and everybody that is kicking against social distancing and isolation right now. A little bit of personal sacrifice now, on everyone's part, saves everyone a world of hurt down the road. And if people don't see that, if too many people continue to be selfish and do what they wanna do right now and take the easy road right now, well, those people will be the reason that this pandemic response fails. If we fall, if this thing gets really ugly, it'll be because of selfish people taking more than they need and depriving others.

And if that's calling names, then so be it. Maybe it's time for that.
Agreed, this needs to be taken more seriously than some people are doing.

Yes, people die daily of various causes- cancer, accidents, heart disease, flu whatever. But that does not mean we do not do what we can to prevent death when possible.

Flattening the curve is indeed designed to lessen the number of cases and deaths- not simply delay them. Avoiding overloading hospitals and slowly building immunity in the general population will increase the positive outcomes and over time slow the spread of the virus.

No, hospitalizations are not good for the economy anymore than hurricanes, building fires or broken windows are. Every dollar spent on any of these is money not spent somewhere else, such as car purchases, travel or even eating out that adds to the economy.

@Noahfecks , I am not sure what you mean by "modeling being debunked by the creator" (God perhaps?). There has been far more than one single study done to model potential disease impact. And while I recognize that computer modeling has great limitations in predicting long-term outcomes of anything, we need to work with the knowledge we have.

I own my on business and certainly worry about the economic impact of current policies. But I will take that risk any day over the experience in Italy right now.

So, considering very few here are infectious disease experts or epidemiologists, and probably a handful with medical training, this is a time for us to listen to the experts (which is not the president) and follow their advice. I certainly do not believe for a minute there is some grand conspiracy but the world's medical profession to destroy the world economy and enslave us all.
 

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Supporting Vendor
Location
A.F.
I notice you are less passionate about the 85,000 Americans who died from the flu last year, or the 3MM elderly that die from various illnesses each year.


So are we, my point was that they were not any faster to respond yet no one is making that less dramatic comparison.

A good deal of the assumptions in the modeling have been debunked by the creator, even he is admitting the model is overly dramatic. He changed his prediction of deaths in the UK from 500K to 20K and admits 10k would have died before the end of the year of natural causes. That's a pretty big reality check.
Where did you get your 85,000 number (not saying it isn't true I just haven't seen that number). Also, things are being done, and have been done about the flu. We currently have vaccines and treatments and new medicines come out each year.

I also, don't understand the modeling debunked by the creator statement. Are you saying only one model is being used world wide that was created by one guy? That no one else looked at any numbers and just assumed his were right? Many countries worldwide are being shut down because of one model?

I haven't been comparing us to Germany because, looking at the numbers, I did not see us the same. We have more cases and more deaths. We have 4 times the population yet we have less than 2 times the number of cases. We also have more than 4 times the deaths. Maybe we are testing better and that is why we have more cases. If that is true then we are right on pace with Germany as far as deaths vs. population is concerned. So maybe we need to compare ourselves more to Germany than I initially thought. I will relook at my stance on that.

Either way I am less worried about an economic downturn than I am the effects of the virus. I guess I feel that the economic problems will be on the less dramatic side and the Virus will be on the more dramatic side if it goes unchecked. I don't think that make me a sky is falling guy.

The way this issue is dividing people is typical of many issues. Either this is the apocalypse and everyone will die, or this is the end of all money as we know it and we will be trading sea shells by years end. Reality will land somewhere in the middle. I feel like we as a country are more set up to handle financial issues than we are a pandemic. Luckily for the U.S. we should peak with Covid19 after regular flu season is over which will free up a lot of medical supplies/equipment. Countries like Italy and Spain were not so lucky.

Many people I have talked to that are super worried about the economy(understandably so) make fun of those "overreacting" about the seriousness of the virus. They may be right, but they are the same ones that say that our economy will completely collapse, which also seems like an over reaction. I am happy about the discussion and the reflection people are in right now. Overall, I believe we will band together as the dust settles and come out more prepared and better for it.
 

Stephen

Who Dares Wins
Supporting Member
Location
Salt Lake City
I certainly do not believe for a minute there is some grand conspiracy but the world's medical profession to destroy the world economy and enslave us all.
No, its a grand conspiracy by the streaming and gaming industry to force us all inside to watch and play their content. :spork:
 

nnnnnate

Well-Known Member
Location
WVC, UT
When the stay at home orders came I thought two things.

First, there is going to be a lot of domestic violence. That's based on experience, anytime families have time off work or extended time at home DV seems to increase. KSL says I was right on that point unfortunately.

The second thought was that we are going to have a mini baby boomer episode at the end of the year.

We'll see if the second one ends up true. Regardless, people, be nice to your family.
 

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Supporting Vendor
Location
A.F.
When the stay at home orders came I thought two things.

First, there is going to be a lot of domestic violence. That's based on experience, anytime families have time off work or extended time at home DV seems to increase. KSL says I was right on that point unfortunately.

The second thought was that we are going to have a mini baby boomer episode at the end of the year.

We'll see if the second one ends up true. Regardless, people, be nice to your family.
I am worried about mental health right now. Some of my friends that work in health care have seen an uptick in self harm behavior. I bet we see a rash a suicides before this is over.
 

Kevin B.

OLAF
Supporting Member
Location
Stinkwater
The second thought was that we are going to have a mini baby boomer episode at the end of the year.
They've already got a name. They're the quaranteens.

I am worried about mental health right now. Some of my friends that work in health care have seen an uptick in self harm behavior. I bet we see a rash a suicides before this is over.
This will be an issue for sure. I'm already seeing signs of depression in my kids that aren't getting outside or seeing their friends as often as they'd like, and my wife is struggling with anxiety over the whole thing (the earthquake didn't help).
 

johngottfredson

Threat Level Midnight
Location
Highland
This is all super interesting. In our family we’ve gone full lock down for my parents (in their 60’s with other high risk factors) and grandparents (in their 90’s). As in, they don’t leave the house (except for exercise), nobody else is allowed in their house. Young family members go to the store for them, get prescriptions, etc. My sister is a single mom and works at a grocery store, and my parents had been in charge of her daughter during working hours. The family has taken turns watching her so to keep my parents further separated from risk.

Meanwhile, the rest of us have kept working, from home where possible, but it does include some being out and about. We take precautions with hand washing, 6’ interpersonal distancing, etc. It seems like there can be an acceptable balance beyond broad spectrum locking down and business as usual.
 

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Supporting Vendor
Location
A.F.
My daughters birthday is in a few days and she is stressing hard about it. It is a small thing in the grand scheme, but big to a 10 year old. I am going to try to set up a google meet for her friends or at least family to sing her happy b-day.

We all get out in the yard and work, play basketball, catch, etc. I am grateful to live in a less populous place than the big cities. I would be brutal in a high density apartment now.
 

Stephen

Who Dares Wins
Supporting Member
Location
Salt Lake City
Overall, I believe we will band together as the dust settles and come out more prepared and better for it.
There is no doubt that this is a watershed moment in world history (I hope you are all keeping journals). After this is over, the world community will evaluate what has happened and determine how we prepare for the next such event. I see references over and over to WWII now a days, and thats apt in that that was the last truly global cataclysm. In many ways, this is even more so in the sense that the virus has no respect for borders or who it targets.

After WWII the major actors on the world stage decided that physical security was the name of the game going forward, so you had the establishment of the UN, Security Council, NATO, the Warsaw Pact, SEATO, ANZUS, etc; all in an attempt to make sure that what happened after WWI didn't happen again. We were bound and determine to collaborate to see that a global conflict could be avoided.

I suspect that after this is over, you're going to see a demand for medical security going forward. Countries will start collaborating in unprecedented fashion regarding virology, bacteriology, medical device manufacturing, interchangeability for equipment, etc. It will be interesting to watch and see how this happens.
 
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nnnnnate

Well-Known Member
Location
WVC, UT
As far as mental health goes I thought it was interesting that I got a call from U of U health this morning from a social worker. He said they are calling patients that are currently prescribed meds for anxiety and depression (that me!) and wanted to check up to see how we were doing.

I feel more anxious since I've been staying home. The earthquake really woke up that anxiety and I couldn't calm down all day. There were a few days I didn't feel like doing anything at all, even going out to the shop, and my wife was worried about me enough to say something. I got through it well enough though and spent some time the last couple days out working on some stuff which REALLY helps me and I'm feeling better. The anxiety is higher than "normal" but I feel like I'm coping as good as I can. Its times like these that I'm really grateful to have hobbies that help me relax.
 

Kevin B.

OLAF
Supporting Member
Location
Stinkwater
It really helps me to get out in the sun. Just going outside and puttering around the yard or working in the garage is a huge benefit to my mental health right now.

I'm going to go for a bike ride later. Probably not across town to any MTB trails, but it'll be enough to just pedal around the roads and get my heart rate up and feel some wind in my face.
 

Kevin B.

OLAF
Supporting Member
Location
Stinkwater
My daughters birthday is in a few days and she is stressing hard about it. It is a small thing in the grand scheme, but big to a 10 year old. I am going to try to set up a google meet for her friends or at least family to sing her happy b-day.

We all get out in the yard and work, play basketball, catch, etc. I am grateful to live in a less populous place than the big cities. I would be brutal in a high density apartment now.
I feel bad for her. She's at such a sensitive age when it comes to social stuff, I'm sure it's rough for her to have a birthday and no friends to hang with. I know it's bugging Ian, and there's not much I can do about it and it sucks.
 
I am grateful to live in a less populous place than the big cities. I would be brutal in a high density apartment now.
^^This. I feel pretty safe in my community, whether I am out taking a walk or whatever. I have been getting a fair amount of motorcycle riding in. I feel like the only risk there is at the gas station.

I visit my 87 yo mother in Murray at least once a week to take care of her groceries and such. I can see this being cooped up taking a toll on her. I feel a bit nervous walking into her apartment/condo building. It likely has 1000 apartments. My thought is that at least a couple of the residents have to be infected, knowingly or otherwise, and they all use the same keypad, front door handle, and elevator buttons. I'm not a germaphobe by any means, but I carry sanitizing wipes with me there and wash hands on the way in and out. I can't imagine living in a big city right now. In that kind of place, it would be almost impossible to eliminate contact with others.
 
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