Coronavirus

cruiseroutfit

Cruizah!
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Sandy, Ut
Thoughts...


So we flatten the curve and things calm down as we roll into summer. How does it not happen again the next time a few infected people make it back to the US next fall and kick it all off again? Legit question, is the idea to buy time so a vaccine can be made and distributed to billions of people? How does this not take off again next fall assuming it doesnt like warm weather and Vitamin D? Do we isolate and shut-in every 6 months?
 

cruiseroutfit

Cruizah!
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Sandy, Ut
Doesn't seem to care about warm and vitamin D, making its way around Hawai`i plenty of warm and vitamin D here.

Ah interesting. So we flatten the the curve which I understand how they will work. So cases start dropping and they cut loose restrictions. What stops it from becoming the exponentially growing pandemic next time? There are reported cases in China of some having it twice so cant be about spreading the sickness and subsequent immunity? What am I'm missing?
 
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Hickey

Burn-barrel enthusiast
Supporting Member
Ah interesting. So we flatten the the curve which I understand how they will work. So cases start dropping and they cut loose restrictions. What stops it from becoming the exponentially growing pandemic next time? There are reported cases in China of sole having it twice so cant be about spreading the sickness and subsequent immunity? What am I'm missing?
From what I've read, the idea is to avoid overloading the hospitals and to allow time for some of the population to develop natural immunity. We would be very lucky to see a vaccine within a year.
 

Kevin B.

Big hippy
Moderator
Location
Vehicular limbo
Thoughts...


So we flatten the curve and things calm down as we roll into summer. How does it not happen again the next time a few infected people make it back to the US next fall and kick it all off again? Legit question, is the idea to buy time so a vaccine can be made and distributed to billions of people? How does this not take off again next fall assuming it doesnt like warm weather and Vitamin D? Do we isolate and shut-in every 6 months?

That's what a couple of the projections I've seen explicitly project. We either lock down HARD and stay way that until the vaccine is out (absolutely wrecking the economy and any semblance of normal life), or we do this cycle where we all isolate for a bit, then open up to let the economy breathe and the virus does it's thing, then we shut down for a bit and get a lid on the virus, then relax restrictions and it runs around some more ad nauseum until the vaccine is out. The idea is that this way the pandemic never gets as bad as if we just ignored it, and the hospitals still get overrun but they get less overrun than the alternative, and the economy doesn't quite completely die even though we're all on government cheese at that point, and we just buy time for a vaccine.

I don't think there's any easy answers. Business as usual? People die due to overloaded hospitals. Hard lockdown? People starve and go crazy. Rush the vaccine? People die due to an untested vaccine. I'm glad I'm not calling the shots.
 

BlackSheep

baaaaaaaaaad to the bone
Supporting Member
Thoughts...


So we flatten the curve and things calm down as we roll into summer. How does it not happen again the next time a few infected people make it back to the US next fall and kick it all off again? Legit question, is the idea to buy time so a vaccine can be made and distributed to billions of people? How does this not take off again next fall assuming it doesnt like warm weather and Vitamin D? Do we isolate and shut-in every 6 months?

That's a good article. I don't think the American public will stand to be quarantined for too long. People have families to feed and they aren't working. I'm not opposed to the government helping people for a short term, but very opposed to long term government handouts. Eventually, the economy has to resume and people need to get back to life. We can't live under the fear of this <<insert whatever - virus, terrorism, etc.>> forever.
 

Kevin B.

Big hippy
Moderator
Location
Vehicular limbo
That's a good article. I don't think the American public will stand to be quarantined for too long. People have families to feed and they aren't working. I'm not opposed to the government helping people for a short term, but very opposed to long term government handouts. Eventually, the economy has to resume and people need to get back to life. We can't live under the fear of this <<insert whatever - virus, terrorism, etc.>> forever.

That's a terrible article. With respect, I don't think you or he have completely grasped the scale of what happens if we listen to the Grand Poobah and everyone just goes back to work. Are you paying attention to the numbers? Are you going to the sources and attempting to understand what we're facing? Or are you just basing your opinion off the soundbytes of an amateur politician and some ****ing weaboo wealth manager?

Very simply, without social isolation, one person with this virus will spread it to approximately 2.5 others over the course of their own infection (weeks, generally). Without social isolation, pretty much everybody gets the virus, and all within a couple months. Approximately 5% of those with the virus will require serious medical intervention. 5% of everybody (plus or minus) inside the span of six months completely overwhelms our medical system. We're not talking long lines to see the Dr. here. We're talking about people's parents and grandparents left in the hallways and parking lots of hospitals to die because we don't have the time or equipment to treat them. We're talking people's children dying of things unrelated to the virus because there's not enough medical professionals to go around. We're talking bodies in piles because our crematoriums can't keep up. If you think I'm being dramatic, think again. This is what happened in China because they didn't react soon enough. This is happening in Italy right now because they didn't take this thing seriously enough early enough. This will happen here unless we react now. I'm not going to take the time to cite all this, these numbers are all available in links already posted in this thread. If if you think I'm exaggerating, take the time to go look at them yourself.

You're right though, I agree with you. We can't sit under lockdown forever. Cash payouts alone won't fix this thing. We don't have all have 40 acres and a cow, our interconnected society must be allowed to produce and consume and buy and sell. And it sucks to be scared, I get that. I'm scared too, I don't like being uncertain of my family's future and I don't like the idea of anyone, let alone me, being dependent on government handouts either. But we absolutely cannot consign the entire United States to the sort of misery other countries are going through right now because some of us are too proud to eat government cheese or stay the hell home. I paid my damned taxes to this government and it can damned well do it's job now and use some of that tax money to help us through a very trying situation. We can damned well sit under pseudo-lockdown for at least a couple more weeks until we know the exact effect of our current actions, and then we can make decisions going forward based on sound science and measured analysis, not emotional reactions to the blatherings of a giant Cheeto trying to save his rich cronies' stock portfolios.

This thing sucks, I get it. In the long run, I expect we're going to find that a balance must be struck between functioning economy and people not dying needlessly, but we don't know what that balance looks like yet. To suggest that we abandon our current efforts at slowing this thing down before we even know how effective they were strikes me as amazingly short sighted. The asshole that wrote that article asks "How much economic value are we willing to lose to save a human life?" My answer is all of it, if that's what it takes, but I don't think that's what it will take. We're a fantastically rich country. I think we have the resources to get through this without resorting to draconian social darwinism bullshit, and I don't think we need to listen to the bleatings of a bunch of rich Wall Street assholes who are suggesting that we kick grandma and grandpa off the boat so that they don't have to become slightly less rich. Let's save the "back to work" calls until we have actual hard data about the effect we're currently having on the virus and the economy, can we do that?
 
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Kevin B.

Big hippy
Moderator
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Vehicular limbo
Check this guy out. He's the Director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins, and he's making a bunch of the same points as I am (I might have stolen some, I don't remember), but he's much more optimistic about it. He argues that a month or less of extreme social distancing gets us to a point where we have a lid on the thing and can relax the distancing and still put out spot fires. If he's right, that's the sort of compromise I'm suggesting will be necessary to keep the economy and people alive at the same time. But it can't happen if we abandon attempts to control the virus today.


edit - this article in KSL suggests that "putting a lid on it" or getting the transmission ratio to something under 1:1 could be seven to twelve weeks.

 
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cruiseroutfit

Cruizah!
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Location
Sandy, Ut
Kevin, great points.

I’m still struggling to understand how this social isolation now doesn’t just kick the exact same struggle down the road when they say it’s OK to come back out. How do only “spot fires” and 1:1 transmission rate exist in the future rather then only 1:2.5/day exponential explosion that is sweeping the US today? If people can theoretically get it over and over until a vaccine can be distributed which we don’t even have confirmation will exist?
 

Homefryy

Active Member
Location
Salt Lake City
Kevin, great points.

I’m still struggling to understand how this social isolation now doesn’t just kick the exact same struggle down the road when they say it’s OK to come back out. How do only “spot fires” and 1:1 transmission rate exist in the future rather then only 1:2.5/day exponential explosion that is sweeping the US today? If people can theoretically get it over and over until a vaccine can be distributed which we don’t even have confirmation will exist?

The hope is that we buy some time to get testing ramped up so infections can be identified and isolated as well as hospitals get better prepared to handle more cases so they don't get overwhelmed.

I don't think they have solid proof if people can get reinfected or not so the safe assumption at this point is that they can but we really don't know.
 

Kevin B.

Big hippy
Moderator
Location
Vehicular limbo
Kevin, great points.

I’m still struggling to understand how this social isolation now doesn’t just kick the exact same struggle down the road when they say it’s OK to come back out. How do only “spot fires” and 1:1 transmission rate exist in the future rather then only 1:2.5/day exponential explosion that is sweeping the US today? If people can theoretically get it over and over until a vaccine can be distributed which we don’t even have confirmation will exist?

My understanding, and I'm sure I don't grok the entire picture myself, is that the spot fire strategy is based on wide availability of rapid test kits. First we have to get under 1:1 and stay there for a bit (months, likely) through social distancing and general isolation. Once we're there the total number of infections drops back down to a manageable level. Then we need the rapid test kits, lots of them, and those are coming now. With the reduced number of infections and the ability to instantly diagnose COVID-19 as often as we want, then we have the ability to vigorously track exposure chains, identify carriers instantly and get them treatment and isolation (things we can't do now). Those measures theoretically keep the transmission under 1:1 while we incrementally relax the isolation protocol and see where the balance is. And in the meantime the federal gov't keeps pumping mad cash in the form of business loans and unemployment payments and such to keep everyone's head above water until the virus is handled and we can try and find normal again?

After reading that KSL article I think that's my understanding of the plan. You're right that if the virus can infect twice it gets ugly. As far as I've read, that was just a couple isolated cases in China or maybe even one? and it was never confirmed/duplicated. They know at least one woman tested positive after having it once and then being cleared, but I haven't seen any reports of that happening for anybody else or heard that she was actually readmitted for treatment, so maybe that can be written off unless/until it starts happening again somewhere else.
 

kmboren

Recovering XJ owner anonymous
Location
Southern Utah
I agree @Kevin B. And @cruiseroutfit. If we open back up in 2 weeks we are going to be worst off then we started. The lower curve is just going to stay at its peak for a longer period of time if precautions are kept. Utah has not even seen the worst of it here and if we open up in 2 weeks or what ever then that curve will spike. I think Utah and other states have done a good job thus far.
 

pELYgroso

'Merica
Location
LEHI, UT
Kevin, great points.

I’m still struggling to understand how this social isolation now doesn’t just kick the exact same struggle down the road when they say it’s OK to come back out. How do only “spot fires” and 1:1 transmission rate exist in the future rather then only 1:2.5/day exponential explosion that is sweeping the US today? If people can theoretically get it over and over until a vaccine can be distributed which we don’t even have confirmation will exist?
I've been asking myself the same question. If it's as contagious as they're saying (which I'm not doubting), how can we ever come out of quarantine and not fall right back into the pandemic state a few weeks later? I agree that we should do the whole social distancing/quarantine thing for a bit to help with the influx of people at medical facilities, but when does it end? At this point, based on Utah's new guidelines or plan or whatever they're calling it, we're in this urgent phase for 7-12 weeks (which means the rest of this school year will be cancelled) then another 10-14 weeks of the second, less aggressive phase. That's minimum 17 weeks, pushing this whole debacle to the end of July, minimum, possibly end of September. Then we're right back to cold/flue season a few weeks later. And I'll tell you right now, I'm very wary of any vaccine that they roll out within a year (not enough testing).

Another thing that boggles my mind is how drawn out the projections are in the US vs how quickly China went from government mandated lockdown to everybody back to work with no masks needed. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like they went from one end of the spectrum to the other in a week with zero new cases spreading now. I'm not usually a huge conspiracy guy, but something in me doesn't buy it. It just seems too far off from what we're being told to do here.

Also, since the beginning of the reporting on this, the info out there was that only people over 70 years old (or something like that) were contracting severe cases. Now I'm seeing articles about percentages of severe cases skyrocketing in the 25-40 something-ish age group. All within the last couple days. How does it just change that quickly?

I'm not doubting that this virus can get bad for some people and spread easily, nor that we should take precautions, but the overwhelming mountains of news and info that just doesn't jive or sit well with me is frustrating.
 

SAMI

Formerly Beardy McGee
Location
SLC, UT
Side note going back to Harvard Professor Dr Charles Lieber and his Wuhan China lab connection...

Harvard Pres & his wife both test positive for COVID-19

Also interesting to draw a connection from Harvard to Epstein, as Epstein gave millions ($6.5M) to Harvard. It just gets curiouser and curiouser.

Lieber....
 

Herzog

somewhat damaged
Admin
Location
Wyoming
I've been asking myself the same question. If it's as contagious as they're saying (which I'm not doubting), how can we ever come out of quarantine and not fall right back into the pandemic state a few weeks later? I agree that we should do the whole social distancing/quarantine thing for a bit to help with the influx of people at medical facilities, but when does it end? At this point, based on Utah's new guidelines or plan or whatever they're calling it, we're in this urgent phase for 7-12 weeks (which means the rest of this school year will be cancelled) then another 10-14 weeks of the second, less aggressive phase. That's minimum 17 weeks, pushing this whole debacle to the end of July, minimum, possibly end of September. Then we're right back to cold/flue season a few weeks later. And I'll tell you right now, I'm very wary of any vaccine that they roll out within a year (not enough testing).

Another thing that boggles my mind is how drawn out the projections are in the US vs how quickly China went from government mandated lockdown to everybody back to work with no masks needed. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like they went from one end of the spectrum to the other in a week with zero new cases spreading now. I'm not usually a huge conspiracy guy, but something in me doesn't buy it. It just seems too far off from what we're being told to do here.

Also, since the beginning of the reporting on this, the info out there was that only people over 70 years old (or something like that) were contracting severe cases. Now I'm seeing articles about percentages of severe cases skyrocketing in the 25-40 something-ish age group. All within the last couple days. How does it just change that quickly?

I'm not doubting that this virus can get bad for some people and spread easily, nor that we should take precautions, but the overwhelming mountains of news and info that just doesn't jive or sit well with me is frustrating.

I'm with you all day long. I stocked up on popcorn.
 

Cody

Random Quote Generator
Supporting Member
Location
East Stabbington
Kevin, great points.

I’m still struggling to understand how this social isolation now doesn’t just kick the exact same struggle down the road when they say it’s OK to come back out. How do only “spot fires” and 1:1 transmission rate exist in the future rather then only 1:2.5/day exponential explosion that is sweeping the US today? If people can theoretically get it over and over until a vaccine can be distributed which we don’t even have confirmation will exist?


I was talking to a paramedic friend yesterday and I said some of the same things. The "hope" is that by flatting the curve, you prevent the system from being overwhelmed so that people that need any sort of care (whether its for The Rona or something else) are still able to get it, and that you are able to buy some time while we figure out more treatments and understand the virus better. It's going to be here to stay, but if some immunity is gradually built up to it, and we find better ways to treat it or even vaccine against it, then the "hot spots" start to lessen and the mortality rates go down due to available medical professionals better equipped with treatments. We're going to live with this for a long time, but will likely be viewed as just another bug you can catch in a couple years.

Another thing that boggles my mind is how drawn out the projections are in the US vs how quickly China went from government mandated lockdown to everybody back to work with no masks needed. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like they went from one end of the spectrum to the other in a week with zero new cases spreading now. I'm not usually a huge conspiracy guy, but something in me doesn't buy it. It just seems too far off from what we're being told to do here.

Because China (and Korea) locked everyone down. Not 'shelter in place', straight up military force in the streets lockdown. Then sprayed the streets down to disinfect etc etc. Our society wouldn't react well to that sort of government enforced quarantine.

For those looking for temporary protection/immunity, I did read about a church bishop telling his members that God will protect them while they are passing out the sacrament and that they need not worry about contracting the virus while doing His work. So, you can mosey on down that road if it suits you. Probably smells like lavender oil.
 

N-Smooth

Smooth Gang Founding Member
Location
UT
For those looking for temporary protection/immunity, I did read about a church bishop telling his members that God will protect them while they are passing out the sacrament and that they need not worry about contracting the virus while doing His work. So, you can mosey on down that road if it suits you. Probably smells like lavender oil.

Churches are closed and have been for the last 2 Sundays. So there's that.
 
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