Oil Shale

[RockMonkey]

Let's talk about oil shale. How many of you watched the video of Chris Cannon that was sent to the U4WDA list?
http://blip.tv/file/924814
He contradicts himself a couple times(is it Wyoming, or Colorado that has trillions of barrels?), but he did make some interesting points, and I like that he used the term "back in the day."
So we've all known about oil shale for a long time. Historically, oil has been too cheap to develop the oil shale deposits. With the current price of oil, and cheaper extraction technologies, this may have changed. It would be awesome to be able to produce all of our oil needs domestically, even locally. But I have some questions about the process. The oil shale is spread over a large geographic area. Does the extraction process turn the area into a huge open-pit-mine style landscape? Chris Cannon mentioned the old process required the shale to be crushed and heated. Does the new process also require the shale be removed and crushed? If an area is stripped, would there be reclamation efforts required to return the land to a usable state? How much of this area would need to be used at any given time to satisfy the need? Are we talking about a few square miles, or hundreds-thousands?
It seems to me this could be a solution to our oil problem, but it could also be devastating to the local landscape. Imagine a thousand Kennecott mines spread all throughout the area... :sick:
So what do you guys think?
Is there anyone out there that really knows about this stuff?

 

[91MJ97TJ]

This website is pretty interesting

I like the comment that: "Other impediments to development of the oil shale industry in the United States include the relatively high cost of producing oil from oil shale (currently greater than $60 per barrel), and the lack of regulations to lease oil shale."

Currently greater than $60 dollars a barrel well sign me up. But it would be great but there are just way too many walls thrown up by this congress. It will be dead for thirty years if Obama is elected.

But I guess if you wear tinfoil on your head and think there is going to be some crazy thing like the movie Southland Tales (which the most humorous thing about that movie is that somehow we have exhausted all possible oil in the US.)

I am just another crazy person.

http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/oilshale/index.cfm whoops forgot to post the link.

 

[waynehartwig]

I watched the video and I think he needed to run through his material at least once before appearing on TV.

While I gotta hand it to him for somewhat thinking out of the box a bit, I do think it's impractical.

1 - The reasons you stated - the entire top layer will need to mined over square miles. Then what happens with the waste? just dumped into even more tilling piles?

2 - Utah already mines enough oil to fuel the state and even export; but yet, the gas prices don't reflect it. Why is that? I think the same thing would happen with the shale oil. Like here in WA, I can drive 20 miles into ID and buy gas roughly 30 cents cheaper a gallon.

3 - I think this is a president issue. Doesn't matter if it's Dole, Reagan, Hilary, Obama, Bush, Daughter Bush or my 2 year old son in 70 years. The president needs to put their foot down about oil imports. If they want to charge $200 a barrel, stop buying from them. We do have oil in this country - though the tree huggers won't allow it be mined/extracted/what ever you want to call it. Bottom line, I think imports should only subsidize our economy/lifestyle/resources/whatever, not run it. Isn't this what happened in the 70's? I was too young to remember the reason, but I do remember the gas rationings and long lines. Wasn't our reserves depleted during this time as well?

EDIT:
Just did some quick Googlin' and found this link:
http://cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htm
I guess I was partially half right. Yes, we stopped importing oil. Yes, we went through our reserves. No, it wasn't the president that cut them off it was them that cut us off.

So whatever happened to being foriegn oil independent by 1980? Or was that a mist type and then meant to say dependent?

 

[jamesgeologist]

Not old enough to remember, but I seem to have seen a few reports that Carter declared that we would NEVER import more foreign oil (600million bbls) as a matter of public policy. Reagan came along and double the imports. Had we tightened the belt and kept it tight, foreign imports would have stayed capped and we would have been further along in the push for energy independence.

On to oil shales. There are two ways to go about extracting those precious oil shales. Ex situ and in situ extraction. See Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_extraction#Classification_of_extraction_technologies

Assuming you could get past all of the regulatory, diplomatic and technical hurdles, the often most difficult is the NIMBY syndrome. Everyone wants a place to dump their garbage, everyone wants cheap clean power plants, everyone wants prisons, however, if it involves making these things happen in their back yard, by God, they will fight it with every ounce of their soul. I guarantee that there is not a Coloradan, Utahan or Sheep Diddler that wants anything to do with oil shale extraction. We face the same problem with folks buying up tracts of land next to our beloved trails, then biatch and moan when one of us drives by.

Eventually something must be done. We will need this energy in the absence of bio, nuclear and hydrogen fuels. This, as with most other fossil fuel alternative, is a stopgap measure before something better comes along.

As a geologist, I do not believe we are running out of fossil fuels. I believe the government, OPEC and "big oil" are artificially decreasing supply in order to maintain or increase profits. There are too many examples of wells drilled 40+ years ago that are increasing in production capacity and with the knowledge or belief that these reservoirs are finite, then there is no explanation for the increase in production over that time line. There are some very interesting studies that are proving the upper mantle/crust interface is capable to generating hydrocarbons that migrate into structural traps that we are already producing. It would be very detrimental to the "big oil" profits if every man, woman and child knew that there were a lot more hydrocarbons in the ground than the oil companies would have you believe!!

James

 

[RockMonkey]

As a geologist, I do not believe we are running out of fossil fuels. I believe the government, OPEC and "big oil" are artificially decreasing supply in order to maintain or increase profits. There are too many examples of wells drilled 40+ years ago that are increasing in production capacity and with the knowledge or belief that these reservoirs are finite, then there is no explanation for the increase in production over that time line. There are some very interesting studies that are proving the upper mantle/crust interface is capable to generating hydrocarbons that migrate into structural traps that we are already producing. It would be very detrimental to the "big oil" profits if every man, woman and child knew that there were a lot more hydrocarbons in the ground than the oil companies would have you believe!!

James

Wow. This is very interesting to hear from a geologist. I've heard several times over the years that oil possibly/likely comes from a non-biological source and is a renewable resource, or exists in far greater volumes than generally accepted. I've always assumed these views come from crackpots and conspiracy theorists.

So do you think we're currently in an "energy bubble" that will eventually burst when research shows much greater supply than is currently publicized?

 

[waynehartwig]

So do you think we're currently in an "energy bubble" that will eventually burst when research shows much greater supply than is currently publicized?

Even if it did, do you think they would lower the cost of gas/oil? Or if oil barrels would be cheaper?

 

[BlackDog]

Boston tea party comes to mind... I have been up to many hours. Or wait, that wasn't what started the revo war, or was it?.. idunno.

 

[jesse]

one of my teachers worked on oil tankers during the 70's during the fuel crisis and he said that at one point he had to wait in port with a full ship for the reserves to lower so that they could off-load. there has never been any shortage of oil, politicians and oil company's just tell us that so we think there is a low supply to increase the demand or however that economics stuff works. i didn't go to that class much

 

[RockMonkey]

Even if it did, do you think they would lower the cost of gas/oil? Or if oil barrels would be cheaper?

Did "they" lower the price of houses when the housing bubble burst?

 

[waynehartwig]

Did "they" lower the price of houses when the housing bubble burst?

Unfortunately for some, yes. but that has to do with supply and demand. The supply was high and the demand was low, so the housing market crashed. I sold my house in Elk Grove (Sacramento) in 04 for $215k. It sold again in 06? for $238k and then again in 07 for $92k. Someone lost a LOT of money somewhere. I Bought the house in 00 for $81k, so it wasn't me

Point being if all of a sudden the cost of oil drops, the demand will increase. How many went anywhere this year last weekend? How many stayed home because of the ~$4 ($5 if you're diesel) a gallon for gas. The demand is starting to drop because of the high prices.

 

[solidfrontaxle]

Do we want energy independence, or do we want affordable oil? Make up your minds. There is no conspiracy, the government and big oil don't control oil prices.
They aren't screwing us, they are trying to make money like the rest of us.
They don't make more money keeping the supply down. Thats not how the economy works.
As far as I know, oil is not going to run out.
If the government really wants to help they can lift restrictions and make the market more free. It will work itself out.
In a free market we have to be able to adapt the changing economic conditions. Deal with it.

 

[RockMonkey]

Do we want energy independence, or do we want affordable oil? Make up your minds.

That's the point. If there really are trillions of barrels of oil that could be produced for under $100 per barrel, we could have both energy independence and affordable oil. The question is what is the big picture? Do we end up with a thousand square miles of mine tailings? I also wonder if this will end up preventing us from pursuing cleaner/cheaper/more efficient technologies like solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels, nuclear, etc?

 

[RockMonkey]

Unfortunately for some, yes. but that has to do with supply and demand. The supply was high and the demand was low, so the housing market crashed. I sold my house in Elk Grove (Sacramento) in 04 for $215k. It sold again in 06? for $238k and then again in 07 for $92k. Someone lost a LOT of money somewhere. I Bought the house in 00 for $81k, so it wasn't me

Point being if all of a sudden the cost of oil drops, the demand will increase. How many went anywhere this year last weekend? How many stayed home because of the ~$4 ($5 if you're diesel) a gallon for gas. The demand is starting to drop because of the high prices.

The oil market is also completely controlled by supply and demand. Currently demand is very high and increasing due to global development, and supply is limited to what we are allowed (by political forces) to produce domestically and what a coalition of oil-producing countries is willing to produce. The supply side of the equation is controlled by the suppliers, the demand side of the equation is controlled by the consumers. These are free market rules, just like every other product.
A "bubble" is created when the price of a product is artificially inflated beyond what the normal rules of supply and demand dictate. In this case, speculation that oil is in limited supply, and possibly running out, while demand is at an all-time high has caused the price of oil to triple in a short period of time. If James is correct, and there is a functionally unlimited supply of oil, then that means we are currently in an "oil bubble." If it is determined that there is an abundance of oil that can be economically produced for the foreseeable future, then yes, the bubble will burst and the artificially high prices will fall, just like the artificially inflated housing market.

 

[jamesgeologist]

Wow. This is very interesting to hear from a geologist. I've heard several times over the years that oil possibly/likely comes from a non-biological source and is a renewable resource, or exists in far greater volumes than generally accepted. I've always assumed these views come from crackpots and conspiracy theorists.

So do you think we're currently in an "energy bubble" that will eventually burst when research shows much greater supply than is currently publicized?

It is hard to conceive of a process that would generate hydrocarbons that is not biologically based. In my experience, there have been cores drilled through pay zones where there is obvious biological remnants. Full fossilized leaves in carbonaceous shale. Is there a process that generates oil from non-biological processes? Statistically, I would say there has to be. Sort of like looking into space and given the amount of gravity that is measured, versus what solid objects we can see, there has to be a "dark matter" that makes up the difference. This "dark process" of oil hadn't been postulated while I was studying, but it certainly has significant merit and the likelihood is that hydrocarbons are created both ways, not one or the other.

In terms of an energy bubble, there will always be demand. Constraints on supply will always drive prices higher. It doesn't matter what facet of energy you look at, cost will be determined by the cost of extraction. I guarantee that we will never use every last drop of oil on this planet!! By the time we get to $1000/bbl oil, a different solution will exist. At that time there will likely be more than half of all the oil and coal that has ever been used through all time, still in the ground waiting to be mined or drilled. Exploring the law of diminishing returns in the case of energy will ultimately determine whether or not the bubble pops or continues to ramp up!

James

 

[waynehartwig]

The oil market is also completely controlled by supply and demand. Currently demand is very high and increasing due to global development, and supply is limited to what we are allowed (by political forces) to produce domestically and what a coalition of oil-producing countries is willing to produce. The supply side of the equation is controlled by the suppliers, the demand side of the equation is controlled by the consumers. These are free market rules, just like every other product.
A "bubble" is created when the price of a product is artificially inflated beyond what the normal rules of supply and demand dictate. In this case, speculation that oil is in limited supply, and possibly running out, while demand is at an all-time high has caused the price of oil to triple in a short period of time. If James is correct, and there is a functionally unlimited supply of oil, then that means we are currently in an "oil bubble." If it is determined that there is an abundance of oil that can be economically produced for the foreseeable future, then yes, the bubble will burst and the artificially high prices will fall, just like the artificially inflated housing market.

I understand and agree with all of that. However, these oil guys are making money hand over fist right now laughing at us during this 'oil bubble'. So my question is still, if this bubble bursts, do you really think the cost of oil will plumit? Someone stands to loose a lot of profits.....

 

[91MJ97TJ]

The way to drop

gas prices by .50 cents is for some high up economist to say we are not at peak oil.

Then to bring it down over the next 10-15 years we need to make more refinaries and drill for our own oil. Or get off oil all together? (Which it has taken us this long to build all these gas stations to fill up do you think they will have the money to convert the station to that new fuel?) We had an oppurtunity with ANWAR back in 97-98 but Clinton and mostly congress shot that down.

 

[1993yj]

My thought about the high oil prices has always been about the speculation. It is on the commodities market and people buy "shares" of oil right? What if it were possible for people not to speculate on oil, wouldn't the prices just be exactly what OPEC set them at? Hasn't the price of oil gone up so high because it is kind of specualted on? I have never quite understood how the commodities market works, but it seems that all that happens is that we all get it in the rear.

 

[Greg]

Since we were discussing speculation & the free market, this article applies-



http://blogs.motortrend.com/6250319/editorial/gas-prices-will-drop/index.html

We're in an oil-price bubble, says billionaire hedge-fund investor George Soros. Prices will drop dramatically -- though likely only when both the United States and Britain sink fully into recession.


George Soros-

In an interview with Britain's The Daily Telegraph, Soros said that while the eroding value of the dollar, rising Chinese oil demands, and dwindling Middle Eastern supplies could explain some of the recent booms in energy prices, the primary cause is, "Speculation . . . The price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles."

Is this good news? Not necessarily. Soros warns that unlike the short recession predicted by many, we're likely in for an economic slide far worse that what we experienced in the 1970s -- largely because, unlike that recession, today the country is also facing a dramatic decline in house prices.

Soros predicts that the gas-price bubble will indeed burst, but only when the economic downturn becomes severe enough to reduce our energy demands significantly.

Which is to say . . . Gas will be cheaper, but we'll all be too poor to buy it.

 

[waynehartwig]

Since we were discussing speculation & the free market, this article applies-



http://blogs.motortrend.com/6250319/editorial/gas-prices-will-drop/index.html

Unfortunately, that is probably the only true cure at this time... It's obvious the people of the country don't care enough to change it. The govt doesn't care either, because they are still getting elected into office without fixing it.

...I'm partly to blame, too.. I don't say anything to anyone important everytime I fill up and shake my head.

All last week the cost of gas was goign down - dropped like 5-7 cents from Monday to Thursday night. Friday after the morning commute it went up 30 cents! It's still there, too.... Not sure if it did the same thing for you guys down there... It's the same price in Spokane as it was much further north, out in the sticks of Kettle Falls and Colville. However, propane is MUCH cheaper up there.....I wonder why?

 

[RockMonkey]

Looks like Chris Cannon just lost the primary. I wonder what losing him in congress will do to land use issues.