Political So now what
- Thread starter 4x4_Welder
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Political discussions within
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That's completely opposite of what the polls say. And sure, the polls can be wrong, but I doubt it. Particularly after Iowa lined up perfectly with what was predicted, Trump getting 51% and everyone else getting 49%.
Real Clear Politics Average 2024 General Election: Haley vs. Biden
And lets be honest here, not everyone in that 51% has "I 💘 Trump" tattooed on their chests. There are a significant number of them who are diehard Republicans and will vote for whoever is the party's nominee, and they are just supporting Trump right now because he is the strongest candidate. I'd venture to say that the number of "Trump voters" who will only vote for Trump and no one else is actually fairly small within the Republican coalition, probably somewhere around 25 to 30 percent.
That's still a massive amount compared to any other candidate, but its not enough to say that "generic Republican" would be toast. Particularly considering how weak Trump is among independent voters, where as any other Republican shows as quite favorable in that demographic. They would most likely make up the loss of diehard Trump voters in pick ups among independents and moderate Democrats.
But who are we kidding? Trump's going to win the nomination, lose the general election, and we'll have four more years of Biden-Harris. If you haven't already, invest in canned food and shotgun shells.
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Jesser04
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You think that if 25-30 percent hardcore trumpers don’t show because they got a different candidate the republicans have a chance of winning. I also agree Trump is the candidate fingers crossed he wins…
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You're also not considering the ~30% of Republicans who will refuse to vote for Trump.
Trump loses the general election no matter what, that's my prediction. If I'm wrong, I will happily buy you and @Herzog a round of the finest BeWilder ale of your choice.
If you want to end the Biden gravy train, someone else needs to be at the top of the Republican ticket.
Jesser04
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Vivek was the only other possible option for me and he’s out. The rest are a bunch of bush loving war mongers.
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I'm not meaning to pick on you, because if that's your position, that's fine and for your sake I hope it works out.
But what does a second Trump administration look like? Who will be his cabinet secretaries? He's burned pretty much every bridge with anyone who has the relevant experience. On top of that, Trump on the ticket virtually guarantees a Dem sweep of the House and Senate, so not only will none of his potential cabinet nominees be confirmed; but how will he enact policy? He won't. To be an effective President and to get your policy agenda through Congress and actually turn it into legislation that lasts, you have to be a deal maker. Trump failed at this the last time around, it will be impossible a second time. So, he'll fall back on the Obama standard just like before, "A pen and a phone" and use Executive Orders. Well, we all know how much longevity those "policies" have.
On top of that, he's Constitutionally limited to two terms, so the moment he enters office he's effectively a lame duck. What can he accomplish in four years with a Congress in the hands of the opposition and probably all of the Executive Branch hamstrung by not having any confirmed Secretaries?
So, what does a second term look like? What is so appealing about someone who couldn't get anything lasting done the first time do a second time around?
DAA
Well-Known Member
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They might have some Anybody But Biden in them too though?
If DeSantis doesn't drop out real, real soon, Trump will get the nomination for sure though.
- DAA
Jesser04
Well-Known Member
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- Kaysville Utah
I’d hope he’d stop funding Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflict it’s a **** show over there that’s doing nothing but enriching career politicians. If he did that and focused on domestic oil production that would be great.
I despise all major news networks and career politicians democrats and republicans alike they all seem to collectively hate Trump so I’m inclined to like him for that reason alone.
02SE
Active Member
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- Millcreek, UT
Stop the free-for-all of illegal immigration at our borders, like he did during his 1st term.
It would be up to him to appoint any new Supreme Court Justices. One of the best accomplishments from his 1st term.
Reverse Biden's Executive Orders on domestic energy production.
It would be great to eliminate or reverse the inflation we've had due to Biden's policies.
We all know he was far more effective than Biden at keeping the worlds tyrants in check.
Of course the constant smear campaign from the dems and their media lap dogs, would continue unabated.
At this point Trump still has the best chance of beating the Biden election machine, which is why I would vote for him again, and not some 3rd party candidate, which would effectively be a vote for Biden.
Trump is simply the lesser of two evils.
As for Congress, hopefully people vote with their wallets, and Republicans regain control.
anderson750
I'm working on it Rose
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anderson750
I'm working on it Rose
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- Price, Utah
Actually @Herzog might be a better fit for the CIA....how do you feel about the border? I am sure he can tell you what you want to know
I'd never want to be a spook, my standards are too high.
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How do you propose a second Trump administration accomplish this? Foreign aid is a budgetary question, and Congress, not the President, controls the budget. Trump can stop requesting aid be sent, but I doubt that would stop many in Congress from continuing to push for additional aid. He could veto a bill authorizing additional aid, but a future Congress controlled by the Democratic party along with many sympathetic Republicans would have the chance to override the veto (particularly for funding to Israel).
I don't disagree with this, but it will be a temporary couple of year return to production before the next Democratic President comes in and undoes all of Trumps Executive Orders that allowed this. The real solution is getting laws passed, something that Trump would be hard pressed to do without either the Congress in GOP hands, or him being able to work across the aisle. Two highly unlikely scenarios should he return to the White House.
Again, something that I would like to see; but he accomplished this through numerous Executive actions, handshake deals with Mexico, and using the Title 42 health order. He certainly could come in day one and tell CBP to start enforcing the laws, which would be a huge improvement, but what really needs to happen is comprehensive reform. That takes Congress acting, otherwise he's just perpetuating the Executive Order abuse we've seen from Obama, Trump, and Biden. Not something any conservative should be a big fan of.
This is true, we were very fortunate to have a Republican in office to have the opportunity to appoint three new Justices to the Supreme Court. But the real plaudits should go to the Federalist Society which has spent the last 50 years cultivating a textualist jurisprudence amongst conservative lawyers and judges and working tirelessly to get such people appointed. During Trumps 2016 campaign he said that should he have the opportunity to appoint a new Justice, he would defer to the Federalist Society and pick from a list approved by them, which he did.
The interesting thing is that the most consequential decision that the current Robert's Court has made, Dobbs, has Trump all in a tizzy. He hates that decision and has attacked the Justices who decided in favor of reversing Roe, even though that was one of the primary reasons that Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Coney Barrett were such favorable picks; because they saw that Roe was a flawed decision. The only reason that one can concluded that Trump is a flip-flopper on the topic is because he sees Dobbs as an impediment to him getting elected because its unpopular amongst the chattering class.
And Trumps policies during his first term. Remember, Trump was the one who started handing cash out to everyone during COVID. He also did nothing to reign in Federal spending. Yes, he has a more pro-growth agenda than Biden, which helped keep inflation in check, but our deficit spending increased under Trump as well. I find it hard to believe that he would do much to make a course correction here, particularly considering that he is refusing to even talk about the elephant in the room: entitlements. And to reform those, he'd need to work with Congress. Are you seeing a pattern here?
Was he? Yes, there is probably something to be said about his "unpredictability" that made actors like Russian, China, and Iran question what the US's response would have been. But he also cuddled up with Xi, talked about how wonderful of a person Kim Jong Un was, and gushed about how manly Putin is. At the same time he trashed NATO, the most important military alliance in the world and the bulwark for maintaining peace and stability since WWII. He softened our position in the western Pacific in an attempt to placate China. And he advocated for an isolationist policy. All of these things embolden our adversaries, not dissuade them.
When Trump entered office in 2017, the world was a much quieter place. He could bumble around and play the reality TV show star without much consequence. 2024 is a much different place. Trump is not cut out to navigate the much more dangerous world that we live in now. His boasting that he could solve all the world's problems in 24 hours with a handshake and a smile is obvious BS. None of the major flashpoints around the world are going to quite down if he were elected, in fact they would probably get worse because of his isolationist bent. The aggressors in these conflicts would like nothing more than to see the US pull back and stop supporting our allies.
Don't take any of what I said here as an endorsement of Biden, it's not. Neither of them are fit to be Commander in Chief.
But he's not. He has at best a 50/50 shot of beating Biden. Either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley are the GOP's best bet of beating Biden. Why chose the hardest possible path when there is a much better option?
But we don't have to choose that option! We can nominate someone else!
IF Trump is on the ticket, Congress will be controlled by Democrats for at least two years if not the next four. If Trump wins, we'll get to enjoy more gridlock. If he loses, its carte blanche for the Dem's to do what they like.
IF Trump is not on the ticket, Republicans will most likely gain control of both houses and be able to finally start putting the country back together for the first time since Obama took office in 2008.
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glockman
I hate Jeep trucks
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Very well though out and written response. I appreciate your perspective Stephen.
anderson750
I'm working on it Rose
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Desantis drops out and endorses Trump. I know he wasn't looking to good in these upcoming caucuses, but am surprised to see him exiting so soon
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- Grantsville, Utah
Same. I’m wondering what is really behind it.
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- Never Far From Nowhere
Not surprising at all. In fact, I predicted it.
He put all his money and effort into Iowa thinking that a win there would propel his campaign forward to New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc. etc. He vastly underperformed his expectations in Iowa (though not pollsters), and was already bleeding money and losing donor support before the caucus. Without a win, no money, and no ground game in NH or SC; he had no path forward.The upside to this is that we now have a two horse race. Most of the DeSantis supporters are going to vote for Trump, because that's who he's now endorsed, and those are the voters who he was trying to appeal to. But now there is a clear delineation, Trump or Haley. This hopefully will make things a little more competitive and interesting.