I'm not a world studies major.. so can some one give me a quickie on the hamas/jerusalem deal. Is this 9/11 big for them? another day at the office? Russia/Ukraine equivalent? What should we expect in America because of it? Is this WW3? Just a hit to my IRA?
This is the worst attack that Israel has experienced since the Yom Kippur War of 1973. And in terms of loss of life, its worse than 9/11 on a per capita basis for Israel. Its also just horrific in terms of how it was carried out. More and more information is coming in that shows that the Hamas terrorists who crossed the border were specifically tasked with finding and killing or kidnapping civilians, specifically women, children and the elderly. This is also the single largest loss of Jewish life in one day since the Holocaust. So, ya know, in a nutshell, this is pretty damn bad.
Complete failure of all Western intelligence agencies to pick up on Hamas planning and building up for the attack. Thats astonishing considering that the Mossad (Israel's equivalent to the CIA) was supposed to have been pretty laser focused on the threat from Palestinian terrorist groups and Iran, which bankrolls them and provides them with arms. As far as comparing this to the Russo-Ukraine war, its a different beast but will likely have farther reaching consequences for the US. Ukraine is an "ally" in the sense that it's in NATO's strategic interest to support her in order to bloody and weaken Russia. Sans that, Ukraine wasn't quite in the US sphere of influence or even really a 'good neighbor' to the EU.
Israel on the other hand has deep, deep ties with the United States specifically and Western Europe more broadly. This is a country that the US has been stalwart in supporting since its inception 75 years ago. They are the single largest recipient of US foreign and military aid. Then you can get into the cultural ties; the US has the second largest Jewish population behind only Israel. Thats not to say that every Jew is a supporter of Israel, but more often than not. Also, Israel is the only functioning democracy in the region. And a vibrant one at that. They are a huge economic partner, something like a top-10 trading partner with the US. Our militaries are deeply integrated, they are one of few top tier non-NATO military partners (along with Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea).
Will the US get drawn into this? Doubtful. Israel has one of the most competent and best equipped militaries in the world. Remember, this is a country surrounded on three sides by enemies and the sea on the fourth. They were born in war and have fought numerous wars and other conflicts through the decades just to remain in existence. Every Israeli citizen, men and women, are required to serve in the military for two years. So that means everyone has some level of military training, thats a huge pool of reservists to call on. In fact, they've called up 300,000 reservists already. They will crush Hamas in the Gaza strip, but its going to be a long, bloody battle.
The big questions for the US are will Hezbollah in Lebanon enter the fray and what is going to happen with Iran. Hezbollah is armed to the teeth with all sorts of missiles and rockets. Even though Israel has the most advanced and layered air defense system in the world, many people think that if Hezbollah and Hamas were to coordinate their strikes, they could have enough to overwhelm Israel's air defenses and cause
massive civilian casualties in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. IF Hezbollah enters and something like that happens, I suspect that the US (and probably France and the UK) will engage Hezbollah targets with cruise missiles and the like.
What happens with Iran is the big wildcard. Iran has bankrolled and signed off on this attack. Iran has been calling for the death of Israel since 1979 and holds it up as the "Little Satan" behind the US's "Big Satan". There is no love lost between the two countries. Israel has the capability to hit Iran. Iran
might have the capability to hit Israel. For decades its been a question of who blinks. Well, now we have the worst attack on Israel in 50 years, explicitly endorsed and backed by Iran. Will Israel settle for some special operations attack on an Iranian nuclear facility or Revolutionary Guard installation? Or will they blow up the Ayatollah? Will Iran launch some missiles at Jerusalem or provide Hamas with a dirty bomb? And if that happens, Israel is an unannounced nuclear power...
Finally, is this World War III. Not yet... Very reassuring, I know. A theory that I have is that Russia's invasion was not coordinated with Iran or China; it was just Putin being a bloodthirsty despot with flagging support at home looking for something to distract the population with. It was supposed to be a quick victory, but as its drug on its become a bit of an opportunity for Russia's allies, Iran and China. The US and NATO are pouring massive amounts of military aid into Ukraine (justly, in my opinion) and it is a distraction from other world hotspots. So Iran and China started to think, "maybe now's a good time to knock off our enemies." and they coordinated that Iran would use their terror proxies to attack Israel. This would be another huge draw on western military resources as we will be back stocking Israel just like we are Ukraine (different kinds of arms, but still a big drain). This will play out for awhile (probably a year or more) and then China will invade Taiwan. Thats World War III. Taiwan is the only one of those three countries that we have explicit treaties committing to their defense.
Sorry that wasn't more succinct. But as far as your IRA is concerned, invest in canned food and shotgun shells.
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