Political So now what

[nnnnnate]

@Stephen what you say about the distraction and opportunity makes a lot of sense but I also hope you're wrong. I don't want to see what China can do in a battle.

 

[Stephen]

@Stephen what you say about the distraction and opportunity makes a lot of sense but I also hope you're wrong. I don't want to see what China can do in a battle.

Yeah, me too!

The US has been too slow to "pivot" to the threat from China. Its only in the last few years that we've really started to see a concerted effort to reposition our forces to tackle the challenges of fighting across the Pacific. We haven't faced a near-peer rival since the '80's and our armed forces reflect that. We became complacent in the '90's after the fall of the USSR and through the '00's and '10's when our main focus was on low intensity combat in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Navy needs more ships and men. The Air Force is depleted and broken after putting aircraft designed for high end combat against the Soviet Air Force into close air support roles for 20 years. And the Army and Marines have been fighting urban and guerrilla warfare for decades which is ill suited for what they'll face in the Pacific. Our military industrial base is weak and needs more investment to come close to even what we need for deterrence let alone fighting a war. One of the "good" things to come out of the war in Ukraine is that it is forcing some of that investment in arms production to come back, now we just need it to ramp up more so we can replenish our stock and provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs.

All this needs political will, though. And sadly there is a lack of that in both parties right now. Maybe what's happening in Israel will wake people up to the fact that the world isn't this happy go lucky place that reality TV stars and old men (or both) can just glad hand their way through anymore, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[TRD270]

We haven't faced a near-peer rival since the '80's and our armed forces reflect that. We became complacent in the '90's after the fall of the USSR and through the '00's and '10's when our main focus was on low intensity combat in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I got to enjoy the military at the tail end of the Clinton era and boy you couldn’t be more right. Our equipment was terrible, outdated, broken (not being replaced). Marines had it even worse than us Army guys. Bush era brought good things for the military and it happened pretty quickly. Been a hot min since I got out but I’d have to imagine it’s not in a great place now.

 

[Houndoc]

Some great, well thought out discussion. Good reading!

I don't see it expanding beyond another round of regional conflict- sort of thing that happens far too often in the region.

One failure from the US (the west in general) has been the failure to create an actual Palestinian nation. On going border disputes (including Jewish settlements built in Palestinian territory) would be prevented if hard borders had been drawn up at any point in the last 70 years. It would not end all grievances or the religious disputes, but would allow nation-to-nation contact instead of Israel trying to deal with terrorist organizations.

 

[jeeper]

So I just listened to the live speech from Biden about the situation. I was hoping for some clarity, show of force, or something worth while. What I heard was a mumbled statement, with a notice of more debt, and a generic 'we are doing everything we can' attitude. He said the American hostages are his #1 priority.. which is exactly what he said about all the Americans he left in Afghanistan.

 

[Stephen]

Some great, well thought out discussion. Good reading!

I don't see it expanding beyond another round of regional conflict- sort of thing that happens far too often in the region.

One failure from the US (the west in general) has been the failure to create an actual Palestinian nation. On going border disputes (including Jewish settlements built in Palestinian territory) would be prevented if hard borders had been drawn up at any point in the last 70 years. It would not end all grievances or the religious disputes, but would allow nation-to-nation contact instead of Israel trying to deal with terrorist organizations.

Palestinians have rejected all offers for a two state solution. Going all the way back to the beginning in 1948, the original proposal to end the British Mandate of Palestine would have set up a Jewish State and a Palestinian State of roughly equal sizes. The Jewish leaders accepted it, the Palestinians and their Arab backers rejected it, which led to the 1948 Arab-Israeli War that established the state of Israel. Every other attempt was met with resistance from the Palestinians, outright invasion from their Arab backers, or the "intifadas'".
Fast forward to the Oslo Accords in 1996 and Israel and the PLO agreed to the West Bank and Gaza Strip having self rule with a goal of establishing a Palestinian state. That went out the window in 2006 when Gazans "elected" Hamas. And here we are today.

Thats not to say that Israel is innocent in all this. They certainly could have handled the issue with more delicacy at times. But history shows that the more intransigent side is the Palestinian, mainly because they don't believe that Israel, or the Jewish people, have a right to exist.

 

[Cody]

Stephen is so happy right now. This is like the equivalent of someone asking me the process differences between hazy and west coast IPA, or to explain why baseball is not a sport.

I, too, appreciate this knowledge. I don't know much about that part of the world or its history/drama.

 

[Stephen]

Stephen is so happy right now. This is like the equivalent of someone asking me the process differences between hazy and west coast IPA, or to explain why baseball is not a sport.

I, too, appreciate this knowledge. I don't know much about that part of the world or its history/drama.

One of the few chances that I get to use what I learned in college. Spent a lot of time studying the various proxy wars of the Cold War era, and the Arab-Israeli wars are some of the most interesting and I've just kinda kept up on events in the area over the years.

But I'd really like to hear why baseball isn't a sport. I feel like I need your expert opinion on that.

 

[Jesser04]

Baseball is definitely a sport.

 

[Herzog]

In the simplest of terms, most air defense systems are calibrated to cover certain altitudes and speeds (referred to as gates). Most Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS), especially Israel's, are designed to detect and destroy fast, high flying objects like missiles, rockets, and aircraft. Hamas exploited this vulnerability by using slow, low flying paragliders over very short distances (basically less than a mile, just hopping over the border). Much like China floated balloons through NORAD airspace because our gates weren't set to detect at that low of speed. Again, this wasn't so much a failing of Israeli IADS which has been successfully intercepting something like 70% of the incoming rockets, but rather of the intelligence gathering on the ground.

I guess I shouldn't just say "yea right", but more like "something in the kitchen is burning". I don't like it much and have a hard time thinking they hadn't thought about this possible scenario.

Regardless - good info, thanks!

 

[mbryson]

....I, too, appreciate this knowledge. I don't know much about that part of the world or its history/drama.

.....But I'd really like to hear why baseball isn't a sport. I feel like I need your expert opinion on that.

Wait, what? Baseball isn't a sport? I could see someone arguing golf or NASCAR... baseball?

 

[Stephen]

“There are only three sports: bullfighting, motor racing, and mountaineering; all the rest are merely games.” - Ernest Hemingway

 

[DAA]

Been too long since I last read Death In The Afternoon. Need to dust it off.

- DAA

 

[johngottfredson]

One of the few chances that I get to use what I learned in college. Spent a lot of time studying the various proxy wars of the Cold War era, and the Arab-Israeli wars are some of the most interesting and I've just kinda kept up on events in the area over the years.

But I'd really like to hear why baseball isn't a sport. I feel like I need your expert opinion on that.

Yeah, I was poli sci major, but my interest (and emphasis) was American government. Definitely got more into the weeds of the history of constitutional thought than geopolitics. Except to learn the prisoners dilemma, and how it means that North Korea really would launch nukes in the right situation.

Thanks for keeping up on this stuff, and spelling it out for those of us who wish to avoid CNN updates

 

[johngottfredson]

I actually think you are more correct than you think you are?

 

[Stephen]

Been too long since I last read Death In The Afternoon. Need to dust it off.

- DAA

Yup, probably 20 years...

 

[Tonkaman]

For any of you looking to get a solid history on Israel (24 hours of content) I highly recommend the Martyrmade podcast by Darryl Cooper. This guy can take a topic and expand on it endlessly, all while keeping your curiosity peaked. I love everything he has ever put out in fact he’s just as good as Dan Carlin.

Episodes 1-6 are called “Fear & Loathing in the new Jarusalem” and were produced back in 2015-2017

‎The Martyrmade Podcast: #1 - Fear & Loathing in the New Jerusalem, pt. 1 on Apple Podcasts

‎Show The Martyrmade Podcast, Ep #1 - Fear & Loathing in the New Jerusalem, pt. 1 - Mar 18, 2015

podcasts.apple.com

 

[Herzog]

 

[Stephen]

For context, this is what Rep. Paul is urging Members to oppose: RESOLUTION Standing with Israel as it defends itself against the barbaric war launched by Hamas and other terrorists.

For those that don't want to read the whole thing, this is the meat of it:

Whereas Israel is a major non-NATO ally and Major Strategic Partner of the United States: Now, therefore, be it Resolved, That the House of Representatives:
(1) stands with Israel as it defends itself against the barbaric war launched by Hamas and other terrorists; (2) reaffirms Israel’s right to self-defense; (3) condemns Hamas’ brutal war against Israel; (4) calls on all countries to unequivocally condemn Hamas’ brutal war against Israel; (5) calls on Hamas to immediately cease these violent attacks and safely release all living hostages and return the bodies of deceased hostages; (6) mourns the over 900 Israelis and 11 Americans killed and over 2,600 others wounded in Hamas’ unprovoked attack on Israel; (7) reaffirms the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security, including through security assistance in accordance with the 2016 U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding; (8) urges full enforcement of the Taylor Force Act (title X of division S of Public Law 115–141; 132 Stat. 1143) and other restrictions in United States law to prevent United States foreign assistance from benefiting terrorists, directly or indirectly; (9) condemns Iran’s support for terrorist groups and proxies, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad; (10) urges full enforcement of United States sanctions against Iran to prevent Iran’s funding of terrorist groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad; and (11) stands ready to assist Israel with emergency resupply and other security, diplomatic, and intelligence support.

Ron Paul is an isolationist, so it tracks that he'd oppose anything that shows support for allies overseas; even ones enduring a brutal attack like Israel is. What he says in his speech is broadly correct, but in typical fashion for any politician, presented out of context and abbreviated for effect.

 

[Herzog]

I just thought it was pretty relevant. He's pointing out some pretty interesting things and at least he was consistent through his political career.