Coronavirus

kmboren

Well-Known Member
Location
Southern Utah
I agree @Kevin B. And @cruiseroutfit. If we open back up in 2 weeks we are going to be worst off then we started. The lower curve is just going to stay at its peak for a longer period of time if precautions are kept. Utah has not even seen the worst of it here and if we open up in 2 weeks or what ever then that curve will spike. I think Utah and other states have done a good job thus far.
 

pELYgroso

'Merica
Location
LEHI, UT
Kevin, great points.

I’m still struggling to understand how this social isolation now doesn’t just kick the exact same struggle down the road when they say it’s OK to come back out. How do only “spot fires” and 1:1 transmission rate exist in the future rather then only 1:2.5/day exponential explosion that is sweeping the US today? If people can theoretically get it over and over until a vaccine can be distributed which we don’t even have confirmation will exist?
I've been asking myself the same question. If it's as contagious as they're saying (which I'm not doubting), how can we ever come out of quarantine and not fall right back into the pandemic state a few weeks later? I agree that we should do the whole social distancing/quarantine thing for a bit to help with the influx of people at medical facilities, but when does it end? At this point, based on Utah's new guidelines or plan or whatever they're calling it, we're in this urgent phase for 7-12 weeks (which means the rest of this school year will be cancelled) then another 10-14 weeks of the second, less aggressive phase. That's minimum 17 weeks, pushing this whole debacle to the end of July, minimum, possibly end of September. Then we're right back to cold/flue season a few weeks later. And I'll tell you right now, I'm very wary of any vaccine that they roll out within a year (not enough testing).

Another thing that boggles my mind is how drawn out the projections are in the US vs how quickly China went from government mandated lockdown to everybody back to work with no masks needed. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like they went from one end of the spectrum to the other in a week with zero new cases spreading now. I'm not usually a huge conspiracy guy, but something in me doesn't buy it. It just seems too far off from what we're being told to do here.

Also, since the beginning of the reporting on this, the info out there was that only people over 70 years old (or something like that) were contracting severe cases. Now I'm seeing articles about percentages of severe cases skyrocketing in the 25-40 something-ish age group. All within the last couple days. How does it just change that quickly?

I'm not doubting that this virus can get bad for some people and spread easily, nor that we should take precautions, but the overwhelming mountains of news and info that just doesn't jive or sit well with me is frustrating.
 

SAMI

Formerly Beardy McGee
Supporting Member
Location
SLC, UT
Side note going back to Harvard Professor Dr Charles Lieber and his Wuhan China lab connection...

Harvard Pres & his wife both test positive for COVID-19

Also interesting to draw a connection from Harvard to Epstein, as Epstein gave millions ($6.5M) to Harvard. It just gets curiouser and curiouser.

Lieber....
 

Herzog

somewhat damaged
Admin
Location
Kamas, UT
I've been asking myself the same question. If it's as contagious as they're saying (which I'm not doubting), how can we ever come out of quarantine and not fall right back into the pandemic state a few weeks later? I agree that we should do the whole social distancing/quarantine thing for a bit to help with the influx of people at medical facilities, but when does it end? At this point, based on Utah's new guidelines or plan or whatever they're calling it, we're in this urgent phase for 7-12 weeks (which means the rest of this school year will be cancelled) then another 10-14 weeks of the second, less aggressive phase. That's minimum 17 weeks, pushing this whole debacle to the end of July, minimum, possibly end of September. Then we're right back to cold/flue season a few weeks later. And I'll tell you right now, I'm very wary of any vaccine that they roll out within a year (not enough testing).

Another thing that boggles my mind is how drawn out the projections are in the US vs how quickly China went from government mandated lockdown to everybody back to work with no masks needed. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like they went from one end of the spectrum to the other in a week with zero new cases spreading now. I'm not usually a huge conspiracy guy, but something in me doesn't buy it. It just seems too far off from what we're being told to do here.

Also, since the beginning of the reporting on this, the info out there was that only people over 70 years old (or something like that) were contracting severe cases. Now I'm seeing articles about percentages of severe cases skyrocketing in the 25-40 something-ish age group. All within the last couple days. How does it just change that quickly?

I'm not doubting that this virus can get bad for some people and spread easily, nor that we should take precautions, but the overwhelming mountains of news and info that just doesn't jive or sit well with me is frustrating.
I'm with you all day long. I stocked up on popcorn.
 

Cody

Random Quote Generator
Supporting Member
Location
East Stabbington
Kevin, great points.

I’m still struggling to understand how this social isolation now doesn’t just kick the exact same struggle down the road when they say it’s OK to come back out. How do only “spot fires” and 1:1 transmission rate exist in the future rather then only 1:2.5/day exponential explosion that is sweeping the US today? If people can theoretically get it over and over until a vaccine can be distributed which we don’t even have confirmation will exist?

I was talking to a paramedic friend yesterday and I said some of the same things. The "hope" is that by flatting the curve, you prevent the system from being overwhelmed so that people that need any sort of care (whether its for The Rona or something else) are still able to get it, and that you are able to buy some time while we figure out more treatments and understand the virus better. It's going to be here to stay, but if some immunity is gradually built up to it, and we find better ways to treat it or even vaccine against it, then the "hot spots" start to lessen and the mortality rates go down due to available medical professionals better equipped with treatments. We're going to live with this for a long time, but will likely be viewed as just another bug you can catch in a couple years.

Another thing that boggles my mind is how drawn out the projections are in the US vs how quickly China went from government mandated lockdown to everybody back to work with no masks needed. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like they went from one end of the spectrum to the other in a week with zero new cases spreading now. I'm not usually a huge conspiracy guy, but something in me doesn't buy it. It just seems too far off from what we're being told to do here.
Because China (and Korea) locked everyone down. Not 'shelter in place', straight up military force in the streets lockdown. Then sprayed the streets down to disinfect etc etc. Our society wouldn't react well to that sort of government enforced quarantine.

For those looking for temporary protection/immunity, I did read about a church bishop telling his members that God will protect them while they are passing out the sacrament and that they need not worry about contracting the virus while doing His work. So, you can mosey on down that road if it suits you. Probably smells like lavender oil.
 

xj_nate

Poser
Location
UT
For those looking for temporary protection/immunity, I did read about a church bishop telling his members that God will protect them while they are passing out the sacrament and that they need not worry about contracting the virus while doing His work. So, you can mosey on down that road if it suits you. Probably smells like lavender oil.
Churches are closed and have been for the last 2 Sundays. So there's that.
 

SAMI

Formerly Beardy McGee
Supporting Member
Location
SLC, UT

Kevin B.

OLAF
Supporting Member
Location
Stinkwater
how quickly China went from government mandated lockdown to everybody back to work with no masks needed
Are you sure that's the case? I agree that misinformation is rife and that's a huge problem for we little people, but the reports I've been reading from individuals in China say that they're all still wearing masks. They say they're allowed to go around their own cities mostly freely now, to work or to the store, etc, but the cities themselves are still locked down with anybody coming from outside forced into a two week isolation quarantine before they're allowed to resume normal life. And that's only been possible because they literally welded people's doors shut, went to an amazingly draconian lockdown, in order to get the infection numbers under control. And it only just happened within the past week, so it's still too early to say if their transmission rates will stay controllable or if they go back up. And plus, it's China, so I'm automatically discounting anything that comes out of that country at this point because they've been lying and making shit up since day one of this virus and they're still doing it.

But yeah. It'd be nice to be able to just have the information at hand and presented clearly instead of having to dig and evaluate each source and etc.
 

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Supporting Vendor
Location
A.F.
Another reason to flatten the curve is the chance for mutation. Viruses mutate, that is sort of their job without mutation they die out. When they mutate sometimes they get more deadly and sometimes they get less deadly. The number of hosts dying makes zero difference to the virus, it just needs to infect. (if every host dies then nothing is left to infect, but viruses don't think so that isn't part of the biological imperative) If viruses don't mutate then immunity of hosts catches up sooner rather than later. It is most likely that this virus would mutate to be less deadly. Not because it cares, but because it is already pretty deadly or we wouldn't be in this crazy pandemic situation. It is a deadly mutated strain of coronaviridae already. The mutation rate is still being calculated, but early data suggests are that it is not a fast mutating pathogen meaning a long term vaccine is likely. Also, meaning natural immunity will help slow the seasonal transmission. It is likely Covid19 will be back in the fall. Hopefully, natural immunity and a vaccine have time to do their thing by then. If not, maybe it will mutate. It is being very successful right now so it has less biological incentive to mutate. Not because it is thinking, but because of natural selection.

Here are a couple boring articles about mutation in very similar coronaviruses. The one about SARS(heavy reading, but not terrible) which affected people the other is about a feline version (terrible reading) that is much more deadly. Luckily the feline version hasn't made its way to humans yet. The feline article uses the word cleavage quite a bit, but don't get too excited it isn't that kind of cleavage. It might be science nerd clickbait ;)


*** The conclusion from the article if you don't want to read the whole thing
The estimated mutation rate and the synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates in the SARS-CoV genome were moderate compared to that in coronavirus and other RNA viruses, suggesting that the SARS-CoV is not an unusual coronavirus in terms of its speed of nucleotide or amino acid changes. Based on the mutation rates estimated in this study, the emerging time of the most recent common ancestor of the 16 isolates can be placed between February 2002 and November 2002. This suggests that the SARS-CoV could have been with humans as early as the spring of 2002 without causing a severe epidemic.



I understand the idea that a quickly made vaccine is scary(I am leery too), but much of the science is already done. Hopefully, vaccines that have been used for similar coronaviridae can be adapter to fit the situation we are in. It still takes time to get it right, but it isn't like we are starting from scratch. It is too bad funding dried up for the vaccines we were already working on for coronavirus strains.

The reason china is back to normal sooner the the US projection is easy. People got locked away and the military got involved. Murica isn't ready for that level of guberment reach, nor should we be. I am not saying we should all turn in our freedom cards and let the government direct our lives, but in the counties that are more government run a pandemic is easier to contain, assuming the government steps in. We aren't used to being told what to do. Many of us don't want to listen even if the science and data backs it up.

If a military enemy came to America to try to kill us (even if it was mostly sick or elderly people) we would fight with everything we have. We wouldn't hand weapons to the elderly and say stay in your house and fend for yourself, I don't want my routine messed up. This enemy is unseen and since it attacks with an inconvenience we have a hard time banding together to fight it. Our best weapon against this enemy is distance, hygiene, science, and time.
 

SAMI

Formerly Beardy McGee
Supporting Member
Location
SLC, UT

BlackSheep

baaaaaaaaaad to the bone
Super Moderator
Supporting Member
That's a terrible article. With respect, I don't think you or he have completely grasped the scale of what happens if we listen to the Grand Poobah and everyone just goes back to work. Are you paying attention to the numbers? Are you going to the sources and attempting to understand what we're facing? Or are you just basing your opinion off the soundbytes of an amateur politician and some ****ing weaboo wealth manager?

...

This thing sucks, I get it. In the long run, I expect we're going to find that a balance must be struck between functioning economy and people not dying needlessly, but we don't know what that balance looks like yet. To suggest that we abandon our current efforts at slowing this thing down before we even know how effective they were strikes me as amazingly short sighted. The asshole that wrote that article asks "How much economic value are we willing to lose to save a human life?" My answer is all of it, if that's what it takes, but I don't think that's what it will take. We're a fantastically rich country. I think we have the resources to get through this without resorting to draconian social darwinism bullshit, and I don't think we need to listen to the bleatings of a bunch of rich Wall Street assholes who are suggesting that we kick grandma and grandpa off the boat so that they don't have to become slightly less rich. Let's save the "back to work" calls until we have actual hard data about the effect we're currently having on the virus and the economy, can we do that?
Relax Francis, you're actually agreeing with the article and with me with your comments of finding a balance. I have been paying attention to the numbers and I have been doing my part to stay home. I'm not basing my opinion off of anything except reality - eventually (note that I've not specified any timeline, only agreeing that the lockdown / social distancing / quarantine can't last forever) the economy has to get going again.

Someone on a FB thread keeps responding "you can't work if you die", they're right, but how many people are going to die due to complications of a failed economy? I'm with you and everyone else in doing my part, but both realities have to be faced and eventually that balance has to be reached.

And honestly where is the government handout going to come from? Especially on a longer term situation when the unemployment rate increases? Poor management from multiple administrations and congresses (present and past) have left this country in a massive deficit and have farmed out far too much of our manufacturing to other countries.

I don't have the answers - I'm not smart enough to know everything and I don't have all of the smart people around me giving me advice, but we can have a civil discussion, especially when you finish out your thread basically in agreement with my statement.
 

Kevin B.

OLAF
Supporting Member
Location
Stinkwater
No, I didn't agree with your sentiment, and you walking your shit back doesn't change that.

I'm all about a civil discussion, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to call out reactionary crap when I see it, and that article that you agreed with is reactionary crap.
 

glockman

I hate Jeeps
Location
Pleasant Grove
I am really struggling with this whole thing. For one, a lot of this is just how my family has lived for 10 years with a child with a severe respiratory disease. We wash often, don't go out a lot during flu season and my wife has been working from home for 10 years. I get an IPA mist when I enter the house in the winter and so do all my kids. Our livers and kidneys will give out but we won't get my 9 year old sick. I say this to emphasize that I have A LOT of reason to be cautious.

Now consider that when I say this
"How much economic value are we willing to lose to save a human life?" My answer is all of it, if that's what it takes,
This not a statement coming from logic or reason, but rather emotion. Killing the economy will kill lots of people and cause lots of human suffering. That isn't the answer to resolving human suffering. Shifting the cause from COVID to economic ruin does no one a favor. No one on this board has the information to make concise sound decisions. All we can do is be as cautious as we can be and still be able to live.
 
Maybe we can agree that the great strength of our country is in individuals making choices that benefit everyone. My problem is that I haven't heard anyone on or off the list answer the question Kurt is asking. I get it that nobody knows for sure, but therein lies the discomfort. Whether we like it or not, the resources available to solve the problem are driven by our economy. You only have to look at the stock market reaction to both the virus and our national legislators finally acting to do something about it to understand that. If we make choices that drive our economy into the ground, then we will have fewer options with what to do after that.

Please be careful about attempting to categorize me using some kind of political label. Each of us has to decide how to handle this and the conversation and points of view put forth by everyone are valuable. Some might even need to set aside their complete disdain for the president of the US as a person in order to achieve the common good I think we are all searching for.
 

TRD270

Web Wheeler
Location
SaSa Sandy
ooooohhhh I feel special I have my critical infrastructure letter now :p
 

BlackSheep

baaaaaaaaaad to the bone
Super Moderator
Supporting Member
No, I didn't agree with your sentiment, and you walking your shit back doesn't change that.

I'm all about a civil discussion, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to call out reactionary crap when I see it, and that article that you agreed with is reactionary crap.
I get you have strong feelings, I didn't walk anything back. And, your statement about balancing does agree with the sentiment of the article. You don't agree with me, that's fine, no hard feelings. Without re-reading the article I don't recall that he had a specific timeframe for finding that balance. Maybe I'm wrong on that statement, for that I'll apoligize up front.

You want some numbers, here's an interesting website:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
 

BlackSheep

baaaaaaaaaad to the bone
Super Moderator
Supporting Member
Some might even need to set aside their complete disdain for the president of the US as a person in order to achieve the common good I think we are all searching for.
This has been true for the last three+ years.

And for those who may want to put a political label on me - don't . Labels do no good in any situation as they ALWAYS hinder and / or block discussion.
 
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