Coronavirus

[anderson750]

While we are at it, why don't we ask all these millennials to double up on the condoms so that we can slow the growth of offspring that will be raised by these snowflakes.

 

[glockman]

According to Worldometer, the top three states for death per million are
New Jersey
New York
Massachusetts.

Texas and Florida are 25 and 26.

If being old is the #1 comorbidity and Florida has a very high average age (I couldn't find a good source for the actual number) Why isn't Florida full of dead people?
People keep pointing to the failure of a specific politician they dislike, but what is a success story? Who handled COVID well? Utah is 46th and the SLC/UT county metropolis is a very densely populated 1.5 million people.

They are going to start requiring proactive weekly testing at my work and I don't know if I have the patience for it.

 

[Cody]

While we are at it, why don't we ask all these millennials to double up on the condoms so that we can slow the growth of offspring that will be raised by these snowflakes.

They've already dropped the birth rate below replacement level.

 

[Houndoc]

@TRD270 Its a percent you gotta bump the decimal. 405000 of 328000000 (2019 estimated population) is .123475609%

How you present the numbers is interesting. Put it in decimals and it looks very small. Point out that we are nearing the point where 1 in 800 people in the US have died of COVID and it seems rather significant.

And if you break it down even further and look at co-morbidities vs coronavirus only, the numbers are miniscule. Not down playing it at all, but if you use science and math to evaluate it, it will leave you scratching your head.

The knock against 'co-morbidities' is still absurd. The simple fact is those are people who would not have died when they did if they did not become infected with the virus. To say they would have died anyway (years down the road for many) is heartless at best.

 

[Spork]

If I strap on my tinfoil hat I could site some stories tying corona virus positive results to more $ for hospitals...
like

PolitiFact: On hospitals and the possible financial incentive of COVID-19 patients

Medicare is paying a 20 percent add-on to its regular hospital payments for the treatment of COVID-19 victims. That’s a result of a federal stimulus law.

www.tampabay.com

Medicare will pay hospitals a 20 percent “add-on” to the regular payment for COVID-19 patients. That’s a result of the CARES Act, the largest of the three federal stimulus laws enacted in response to the coronavirus, which was signed into law March 27.

If you believe numbers are changing or not, I would say that even in the sacred medical world there is a temptation that the dead guy laying on the bed died with covid for another $10k. Tests aren't infallible false positives occur all the time, really wrap on the tinfoil and you might even wonder if they are valid at all... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...oronavirus-kits-after-goat-test-idUSKBN22F0KF We are all going to live forever right until the day of our death.

 

[anderson750]

The knock against 'co-morbidities' is still absurd. The simple fact is those are people who would not have died when they did if they did not become infected with the virus. To say they would have died anyway (years down the road for many) is heartless at best.

I am a heartless MF when it comes to stupidity and there is a lot of stupidity going on. Here you go again making ASSupmtions on what is said. How is it absurd in relation to how the media and politicians are using it? Go back and do a little research on other times in history, H1N1, swine flu, a bad year of influenza and show me where comorbidities have been buried in the story line like they are with the Rona? I'll patiently wait for some data....and no I am not going to go and look for it, since it is not out there.

 

[glockman]

People get tunnel vision. Comorbidities are a factor that should be considered when making public health policy. So is mental health and economic impact. Turns out an effective way to kill or harm a large number of people is to destroy the economy.
You can't tell if people with a comorbidity for COVID would have died from the comorbidity. You also can't determine if a person who committed suicide in the last year would have done so without lockdowns. Both are factors and both should be considered.
The default argument when one has none is to claim their opponent is rude, racist, sexist or heartless. That is an opinion that needs no numbers or data to validate. It's intellectually empty.

 

[xjtony]

How you present the numbers is interesting. Put it in decimals and it looks very small. Point out that we are nearing the point where 1 in 800 people in the US have died of COVID and it seems rather significant.


The knock against 'co-morbidities' is still absurd. The simple fact is those are people who would not have died when they did if they did not become infected with the virus. To say they would have died anyway (years down the road for many) is heartless at best.

I believe you missed my point entirely. Both side report numbers in a way that panders to those that share their same views. I didn't "put it in decimals and it looks small". I reported actual numbers from the CDC and census and put them into a percentage ( the most simple way to compare a portion of one number in relation to the whole). I'm not looking for ways to make people scared or ignore the issue. I'm not looking for ways to describe the numbers to make them seem one way or the other. I posted facts and boiled those facts down to the real numbers. I've stated several times that I know people effected by this and 405000 (the death rate at the time of the post) is a serious health issue. My point is that those in power only report the facts in a way that benefits them. I would bet that most of us in any given 800 people we meet will have met someone who is going to pass in the next year for one reason or another. This is why I posted hard numbers, not some variation that makes the numbers "seem" one way or the other.

 

[Pike2350]

the total number of 2020 deaths is within the annual average. The fluctuation is (IIRC) 30k+/-. The C-19 deaths haven't put the US beyond the annual average.

I don't know where you are getting this info but it'a incorrect. We had over 300k more deaths in 2020 then in 2019......as per the CDC's own stats for all causes. (I'm not just taking the MSM covid death count either)

We hit almost 3.2 million deaths and there will likely be an increase in that over time(not by much) compared to 2.855 million in 2019.

So to say we were within the annual average and within 30k fluctuation is just false.

 

[Pike2350]

It's important to point out that 2020 was higher than expected and with the rising age of the population and decreased health, the census estimated our numbers will continue to rise to where we'll hit 2020-type numbers at the end of the decade. That's without Covid.

Yes the number of deaths go up every year...on average around 1-2%. I don't care as much about the cause of death because a death is a death...that's why I am using total deaths from all causes. That way, regardless if the person died of a heart attack but was coded as Covid it is still counted even if you look at the reduced heart attack deaths and increased Covid deaths.
The fact that there was around 300k more deaths in 2020 then 2019 is substantial. It was about an 11% increase...so even taking i to account a normal 1-2 % increase was expected, we saw around a 9-10% increase in all deaths.

You are right though...the final death count wont be available for another 9-12 months..but it will moat likely go up not down. Not much but still. An increase of 300k is substantial....and shows that it doesn't matter if you want to claim the MSM is lying about Covid deaths there is really no way to argue that Covid isnt killing a lot of people.

 

[mbryson]

Interesting article from Bloomberg

Why Delta Is Making Herd Immunity Harder to Reach — Bloomberg

Many countries are counting on vaccines to build sufficient immunity in their populations so that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, isn’t able to find enough people to infect, causing transmission to eventually stop. But even in countries with a high proportion of people inoculated...

apple.news

 

[Houndoc]

That's not how comorbidities work.

My medical degree (yes, veterinary medicine) has taught me how to understand and apply the idea of comorbidities. I do know how they work.

Here is a definition:

co·mor·bid·i·ty​

(kō'mōr-bid'i-tē),
A concomitant but unrelated pathologic or disease process; usually used in epidemiology to indicate the coexistence of two or more disease processes.
[co- + L. morbidus, diseased]
Farlex Partner Medical Dictionary © Farlex 2012

It does not suggest in any way that each disease is equally responsible for a death or that the cause of death is not able to be determined. Simply that a person has more than one disease (such as a person with both high blood pressure and diabetes), which is very common.
Before the state declares a death as COVID related all medical records are carefully reviewed and a positive test does not always result in the death being listed as a COVID death. After further review they will even remove someone from the list of COVID deaths if additional information (autopsy, pathology results etc.) changes the diagnoses.

I didn't "put it in decimals and it looks small". I reported actual numbers from the CDC and census and put them into a percentage ( the most simple way to compare a portion of one number in relation to the whole). I'm not looking for ways to make people scared or ignore the issue. I'm not looking for ways to describe the numbers to make them seem one way or the other.

I wasn't meaning that you personally placed the numbers in a certain way to affect how people react but that in general how people's understanding can be affected by how statistics are presented.

435,000 deaths is a clear number people can understand, but does not give full context (total population.)
0.13% of population is in context, but harder for people to relate to.
1 in 800 is in context and relatable as I think we can all picture a group of 800 (coworkers, church congregation, school etc.) but can give the false impression those deaths are equally distributed among the population.

All are equally factual and each has its drawback to how people understand the situation.

 

[xjtony]

Before the state declares a death as COVID related all medical records are carefully reviewed and a positive test does not always result in the death being listed as a COVID death. After further review they will even remove someone from the list of COVID deaths if additional information (autopsy, pathology results etc.) changes the diagnoses.

I can tell you with a fair amount certainty that at least in some states this is untrue. I obviously won't give any names or locations, but I personally know several medical professionals from doctors and nurses in COVID wards to administrators that have personally verified that the change to diagnoses is almost always going in the opposite direction ( at least in the locations these people work). They are being required to report anything that MAY be COVID related as a COVID death. The idea is to look for more federal and state funding as well as recoup lost income from other patients that are not seeking care. Not saying its right, but I understand the thinking. Again this is information from people I know and trust, not just internet sleuth "data".

While your statement may be the way things are supposed to be working, at least in some cases, that's not the way it is. I would wager that its probably a measurable percentage of cases being treated this way. Please don't take my posts as an attack. It would be fair to say that you have more medical experience than most of us on here, but the perceived (at least to me) message of your posts is that everyone is doing everything by the books and there is no way that the numbers are not accurate. I am not a denier. I have repeatedly stated that I know multiple people who have lost relatives and have been seriously impacted by the virus. one of my best friends lost a job and a house due to the virus. My wife is a type one diabetic and has asthma. We take great care and do everything we can to lessen the chances of contracting the virus because contracting it holds a higher risk than it would with most people.

Conversations like this are important to get people looking at all sides. Like most polarizing issues I firmly feel that the truth is typically somewhere in the middle and we need discussions like this can hopefully bring enough information forward to make real progress. I honestly feel that a lot of the safeguards that we have implemented are at best misunderstood, at worst an attempt to try and exert control over the people. I don't really understand the mentality that doing something simple like wearing a mask, that MAY help protect people like my wife, is somehow a massive blow to their personal rights.

 

[Houndoc]

@xjtony if you look at Utah data, they have reported cases being removed from COVD death statistics after it was determined that was not the actual cause of death, even if had a positive test.
At least in Utah the actual cause of death being COVD is also not made solely by the attending physician or the hospital but is reviewed at the state level.
I personally find it very doubtful that many doctors or hospitals are willing to put their licenses on the line by falsifying a medical record (one of the quickest ways to loosing a license) for a few extra dollars. May happen, but I would hope those who feel pressured to do so are reporting it as fraud.
It is unfortunate that the 'comorbidity' discussion is used by some as a reason to down play the seriousness of the pandemic instead of realizing that it really means is that there are many people around us at far higher risk of death or serious disease then we may be personally and that it increases our responsibility to take steps to limit the spread of the virus.

 

[xjtony]

@Houndoc why do you find it doubtful that this is happening? This is the PERFECT environment for this to happen. Hospitals dealing with the virus are overrun in many places. Everyone is so freaked out over the virus that in many places it seems like there are sometimes no true reviews being done. The federal government is currently a mess at best trying to find a new path after current events. And we are not talking about a few extra bucks its millions in funding up for grabs. Some hospitals are reporting 30-40% lost revenue due to the virus. I clearly don't agree with inflating the numbers, but it is happening, and I can honestly understand why. I know someone who works in a preemie ward. They are completely swamped and have a huge workload due to staffing being pulled for COVID relief, and the simple fact that they are for the most part isolated to protect the babies. At one point she was living at the hospital due to workload.

I fully respect that we all have our right to our own opinions and yours is that no (or very little) wrongdoing is being done. I have seen information that is contrary to that. I know I have crazy conspiracy hair, but I'm not one to buy into conspiracies without some tangible evidence.

As far as your last sentence we are in 100% agreement. I live in Grantsville as well. We have both seen diligence in stuff like masks and social distancing fall off fairly drastically over the last month. I have simply come to the conclusion that the only people I can trust to help protect my family, are in fact my family members themselves. I'm not going to rely on anyone else to do the right thing, I've got to do it myself.

 

[TRD270]

“ Finally, the Utah Department of Health reported Thursday that they found no connection between the COVID-19 pandemic and increases in suicide or drug overdoses.”

Whomever is writing reports for the DoH is lying to themselves. Wanna talk about stat shenanigans

 

[Pike2350]

Dr. @Houndoc the vast majority of covid-19 deaths are of people with comorbidities and what? Those folks are at risk EVERY flu season. We're ALL just talking about it now.

Comorbidities are actually a worse problem than covid because it puts those people at greater risks in all sorts of different ways. That's not a knock, they've killed more people and will continue to do so.

Yes, if covid magically disappeared, they wouldn't have that specific risk anymore but around every corner there's a threat. But, we live in a world that doesn't really consider that.

I agree with you that the comorbidities that are contributing to Covid deaths are technically a bigger problem. However your assertion that the comorbidities that are contributing to Covid deaths are at almost as high a risk with other sicknesses/viruses is quite a stretch.

Many of the comorbidities, while real public health issues and major problems in this country are not inherently fatal when combined with other viruses or health risks. They make a person unhealthy but not the risk of dying from other sicknesses is not anywhere near the same as with Covid.

There ate many health issues that are listed as comorbidities with Covid that you will not see on other sicknesses as "high risk". So while they are a huge health problem...they are not nearly as high risk and fatal with other sicknesses. They may make other sicknesses more severe or even contribute to less then ideal outcomes or treatments...they aren't as fatal in the near the same way

@xjtony. While I am not disputing what you are saying....Almost every time I've heard something like that it's always very much "friend of a cousin who plays golf with a Dr" kind of thing. I saw 1 YouTube video months ago from a Dr. That claimed the same thing...but it's the only one and I never did verify it was an actual Dr. in the video. Otherwise it's almost always as you say and always a vague witness without info to really back it up.....

My wife's good friend is a nurse out at Jordan Valley ER and she has stated that it doesn't happen and in fact really pisses off the Dr's to be accused of such things. Again, all heresay...but at least I have faith in saying which hospital and which department. Take it for what it's worth

 

[Unimog]

My question about how sickness and deaths are documented is this: Why do we have pretty much zero people getting sick with the flu this season? Here is what the Utah Health Dept says about flu-caused hospitalization over the last 5 years:

 

[anderson750]

My question about how sickness and deaths are documented is this: Why do we have pretty much zero people getting sick with the flu this season? Here is what the Utah Health Dept says about flu-caused hospitalization over the last 5 years:
View attachment 134539

Because the cure for the flu is RONA

 

[Cody]

My question about how sickness and deaths are documented is this: Why do we have pretty much zero people getting sick with the flu this season? Here is what the Utah Health Dept says about flu-caused hospitalization over the last 5 years:
View attachment 134539

I also find this very curious. I suspected a decline because of the general decrease in people doing things in groups and going out, and a general increase in personal sanitation/hand washing. Still seems odd.

However, as a sample size of 1, this is the first year neither of my kids have brought home any sort of sniffles or cough from school or day care. Knock on wood.

Also, as comorbidities go, I'm technically obese. Count me in the group ha ha.